Daily Market Cast 8/13

Daily Commentary: Thursday, August 13, 2026 

Transcript

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Hey everyone, this is Allison giving you today's daily green market commentary for Thursday, August 13th. And was yesterday a one-day wonder? Well, fair enough. It was an honest question, and we received it quite a bit today. Um, yesterday's report sparked a broad rally, and today's trade is certainly testing whether that strength can last. So we did have a few different things that were moving um the market today, and it wasn't just technical. Some of it actually challenged some of the USD numbers we received yesterday, and part of it came from South America. So CONAB raised Brazil Brazil's corn production roughly 3 million microtons above yesterday's USD estimate. However, CONAB did leave exports unchanged and raised ending stocks. So, in other words, nearly all of that added production went directly to Brazil's carry-out, not additional demand. And Argentina kind of presents an even larger potential adjustment coming down the road. Um, the Rosario Grain Exchange estimates production roughly 7.5 million metric tons above the USDA's estimate. So we can't simply add that entire difference to world stocks because there's gonna be feed use, exports, crop year counting, that's gonna absorb part of it. But still, the combined South American estimates do suggest yesterday's USDA world corn supply may be understated. The soybean changes um were smaller uh by the agency, but carried a similar message. Conab trim production and exports, but raised ending stocks. So it implies weaker domestic use is more than offsetting the slight uh production reduction we saw. Um wheat also traded lower during the session after Ukraine reportedly offered a mutual halt to attacks on civilian Black Sea targets. Russia has not responded, but the possibility of safer grain movement was certainly enough to pull some risk premium out of the market. So there was a lot of information in yesterday's report that the market's still digesting, and we saw even more arrive afterward. So tomorrow's close, Friday's close, or even Mondays should give us a better tell on whether the market's establishing a new price level or whether yesterday was really simply a one-day wonder. But US demand is a bit split. Old crop commitments are up 24% from last year, and that's well ahead of the USD's revised forecast for an 18% increase. However, new crop commitments are down 24% year over year. So the market needs stronger new crop sales to really counter the possibility of larger South American supplies. Otherwise, buyers will have more alternatives, and the USD's higher US export forecast could become very difficult to achieve. And speculators reportedly bought more than 55,000 contracts yesterday, yet we did see open interest be nearly unchanged. So that suggests more of the move we saw was involved in short covering or exit or existing positions really just changing hands, not a wave of new committed, new money, new positioning coming in. And technically, December uh corn is holding support at its 100-day moving average just below today's close at 471 and three-quarters. The July high at uh 492 is gonna be resistance. We did see the December contract settle at 472, 8 and 3 quarter cents lower. September also lost today, closing 9 cents lower at 448. And U.S. soybeans remain highly competitive. Um, U.S. Gulf FOB offers are running 30 to 45 cents below Brazil through the end of the year. So that advantage is producing business, and we do see China continuing to buy here ahead of meetings with China in in Washington. So weekly sales did reach 68 million bushels near the upper end of expectations, and new crop commitments have surged to four-year highs, uh, 372 million bushels. That's up 115% from last year. And China accounts for a lot of it with another good amount going to unknown destinations. Um, and again, this morning we saw an export sale on its own 125,000 metric tons of soybeans to China, all very good in helping the demand picture and likely limited losses when we did see um corn and wheat really struggle. So technically, yesterday's USD report did push soybeans back really close to that $12 level. We hit a high yesterday on the November contract of $1,1198 and three-quarters, but we saw that spike only last 15 minutes. So that brief opportunity is just another reminder to have orders working at the elevator before major reports. So today's high was $1,118. So November closed at $1,1182 and a quarter, a penny lower. September settled less than a penny higher at $11.66. And wheat is caught between rising supply risk and a weak US demand picture. Attacks on Ukrainian porks, uh, record low Danube river levels, and slower August exports do threaten Black Sea availability. And Germany's crop estimate was also cut 1.5 million vector tons following heat and drought. So together, these developments suggest the USD's modest 2.5 million ton reduction to Russia and Ukraine exports may not be enough. However, Ukraine's proposal to halt attacks on those civilian Black Sea targets could quickly remove that risk premium if Russia agrees. So that might be the risk going into the weekend. But meanwhile, US export commitments are down 32% from last year versus the USDA forecast of a 15% decline. So until sales improve, wheat rallies will remain heavily dependent on Black Sea disruptions. So September Chicago wheat did close on change at 652 and three quarters. September KC ended at 720.5, less than a penny lower. And September Minneapolis settled three and three quarter cents lower at 669 and a quarter. And livestock features opened sharply lower this morning with selling pressure carrying into the late morning. Feeder cattle were the first to attract buying interest, recovering a good portion of their early losses by the close. Live cattle followed more gradually, but still finished with some moderate triple-digit um declines. Cash activity was reported around 235, slightly softer than last week. Um, there continues to be on verified talk of another beef plant closure, though nothing has been confirmed. Whatever's driving the current weakness will either surface soon or the selling will exhaust itself and allow supply fundamentals to reassert themselves again. August live cattle settled at $226.22.5 down $4.35, while December closed at $219.45 off $3.35. August feeders finished at $3.42.82.5 down $3.525. October ended at $3.28.80 down $1.60. Traders were actively bear spreading, and that's a posture that remains negative longer term. Lean hogs showed little recovery from early declines. All contracts posted small triple-digit losses with the exception of the soon to expire August contract. The market came close to establishing new August lows across the board and continued to feel pretty vulnerable to further downside risk. Export sales were the weakest in four weeks, and that just adds another negative tone. October and lean hogs did close at 82125 down a dollar forty two five, while February settled at 76.25 off a dollar seventy. So the dog days of summer have clearly arrived in the livestock complex. So again, if you have any questions, as always, feel free to reach out. Otherwise, have a great night. We'll talk to you again tomorrow.