Daily Market Cast: 8/11

Daily Commentary: Tuesday, August 11, 2026

Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:00

Hey everyone, this is Allison giving you today's Siddly Gray Market commentary for Tuesday, August 11th. And US crop conditions were updated yesterday afternoon with corn holding steady at 61% good to excellent and soybean conditions slipping one point to 62%. Spring wheat provided a bit more of a surprise, actually dropping four points to just 51% good to excellent, but harvest is chugging along, and that's keeping crop development important to watch here. And we're seeing it remain ahead of normal, kind of across the board. Um, corn, 61% of the crop is in dose stage and 16% is already dented. And soybeans are also progressing quickly. 74% of the crop is setting pods. So at this point in the season, um, it is normal to see condition ratings become less influential and the market just shifting its attention more toward yield and production estimates. So that brings us to tomorrow's USDA report. And historically, the August report is not necessarily a major surpriser. Um, however, it will provide the USDA's first survey-based corn and soybean yield estimates of the season, so it makes it an important checkpoint for the market. So it may not usually be the biggest report of the year, but as we have learned before, you just never know what the USDA has waiting for us. So I am including a table that has all of the estimates ahead of the report tomorrow, but I do want to break it down by crop of a few key points, starting with corn. And I think it's fair to say the market already expects a large U.S. corn crop. So tomorrow's production numbers will be judged against what traders have already priced in. Average estimates call for yield around 182.5, which is down half a bushel from July. And if acres remain unchanged, it'd still be the second largest US corn crop on record. But the unknown that we've seen debated here over the last couple of weeks is whether we see acres move. Exports, though, on the demand side are going to be worth watching, especially given current shipments. If the USD does decide to finally adjust for it, old crop ending stocks could potentially fall below 2 billion bushels. But the more interesting story may actually be on the world side. Um, USD's agriculture office in Ukraine recently cut its 26-27 corn export forecast by 9 million metric tons, just because of Black Sea shipping problems. But at the same time, we're seeing persistent heat and drought reduce Europe's uh corn crop. And Europe may need more imported corn just as shipments from one of its closest suppliers becomes a little less reliable. So world supplies will receive attention, but location is gonna matter. Corn city in Ukraine does little for European buyers if it cannot move through the Black Sea. So technically, we did see December. September corn futures hold key support levels here going into tomorrow's report. September ended one and a half cents lower at 436 and three quarters, December settled one and a quarter cents lower at 460 and a half. And soybean numbers may be a bit more difficult to predict than corn. The market's balancing strong demand against uncertainty over whether July weather really impacted yield. But the average trade estimate calls for a national yield of 52.9, just below the July estimate of 53, even. But demand remains the more supportive side here of the balance sheet. Old crop export commitments have already exceeded the USD's projection, and that gives the agency room to raise some exports again. The trade expects old crop ending stocks to decline slightly, but major changes to the world balance sheet are unlikely. And this report should remain centered on the U.S. crop, just with yield and exports determining whether an already tight domestic outlook becomes even tighter. So today we did see September beans settle lower. Um they closed at 11.51 and a half, 10 and a quarter lower. November closed 10.3 quarter cents lower as well, closing at 11.68 and three-quarters. And wheat may have the most uncertainty heading into the report tomorrow. Um, the USA is still expected to reduce both winter and spring wheat production, and that's gonna keep the U.S. crop the smallest since 1970. But wheat was unable to hold its early strength we saw overnight. Um, we're continuing to hear some logistical problems in the Black Sea, but also reports that Ukraine is considering moving more grain by rail through Moldova, and that's avoiding the increasingly dangerous Black Sea shipping lanes. So the world balance sheet will receive a lot of attention just because of this. The USD's air culture office in Ukraine recently also reduced its 26-27 wheat export forecast by 25%. So the key question is who replaces those missing exports? Um, the USDA's European office is not expecting additional wheat exports from the EU, and that leaves limited alternatives if importer demand does remain strong. So the world stocks estimate may not tell the entire story tomorrow. Changes to exports among major suppliers and signs of demand rationing among importers could be really the most important numbers. September Chicago wheat ended 10 and a quarter cents lower at 6.30 and a quarter. September KC ended at 699 and a quarter, 14 and a quarter cents lower, and September Minneapolis finished at 659 and a quarter, 10 and 3 quarter cents lower. And the live cattle feeder cattle markets printed higher highs and higher lows today, but most contracts stayed within Friday's wide trading range. So the bulls need to close above last week's highs to regain the edge. And there wasn't any news today to give either the bulls or the bears the advantage. Demand for beef will have to remain at current levels or improve if December futures have a chance to rally back toward the 240 level. August live cattle were off 52.5 cents, closing at 232.75. December was off 25 cents, closing at 225.70. August futures were off 57.5 cents, closing at 350.175. October was up 82.5 cents, closing at 336.70. Lean hogs had an inside day of trading today. The trend has been lower for the past two weeks, and the market took a breather today while waiting for the next piece of news to digest. August hogs will expire on Friday and are currently trading um $12.67 above the October contract. So the five-year average spread between August and October lean hogs during expiration week is about $17, $17.29. So this may indicate that seasonal weakness could be greater than it has been in past years. So the key support level for October hogs does remain the July low of $79.775. October hogs were off 35 cents today, closing at $83.32.5. So again, if you have any questions, as always, feel free to reach out. Otherwise, have a great night. We'll talk to you again tomorrow.