Daily Market Cast: 8/10

Daily Commentary: Monday, August 10, 2026 

Transcript

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Hey everyone, this is Allison giving you today's daily green market commentary for Monday, August 10th. And geopolitical risk didn't disappear over the weekend. Russia continues targeting Ukraine grain export infrastructure and storage facilities. And at the same time, energy prices opened higher with the market watching talks on reopening the Strait of Hermoose. Direct talks between the US and Iran, though, appear limited, but Trump did say he wants Iran to feel some economic pressure. Grain markets responded differently to those developments. Higher energy prices did help soybean oil lead the soybean complex higher, while the attacks in Ukraine helped support weed exchanges at least in the overnight session. Neither story created a major move yet here to start the week, but the market is beginning to rebuild some risk premium. The funds added to their corn position last week and are now holding their largest net long position in roughly two months. So they appear more willing to own corn coming into Wednesday's USD report, either because demand remains strong or because they see more production risk than the current price reflects. Soybeans are a different story. The funds were heavy sellers across the complex last week. So they do remain long, but they removed a good amount of risk. So that may help the complex if energy does remain firm and China continues buying. But the market here for soybeans is no longer crowded. So that does leave some room for the funds to return. And wheat remains the outlier. The funds added to their Chicago short position while holding long positions in Casey and Minneapolis. So that tells us the trade is still comfortable selling Chicago despite those continued Black Sea risks. However, if exports become disrupted, that short position could quickly change. So the overall message is that the market is trying to rebuild the risk premium, but the market wants proof. And with geopolitical risk building, Wednesday's USD reports ahead, any surprise could create a much larger reaction than the headline alone might suggest. And corn remains a production versus demand story, but the supply concerns are becoming increasingly global. Ukraine's grain production and export forecasts do continue to go lower, including for corn. And in France, corn ratings slipped again and remain less than half of last year's level. So demand remains the stronger story here. USDA first announced a sale of 105,000 metric tons to ongoing destinations, followed by weekly export inspections that exceeded expectations this morning. So year-to-date inspections are up 25% compared to the USDA's forecast for just a 16% increase. So that strength will likely show up in this week's USDA report. And interestingly, in the report, Spain was the top destination last week. And with EU corn conditions continuing to decline, additional demand from that region would not be surprising and could provide just another lay of support for U.S. corn. So today's export news does support the idea that this demand story is beginning to unfold. So September and December corn did close less than a penny lower at 438 and a quarter and 461 and three-quarters. And soybeans continue to hold support. The trade is balancing expectations for a large U.S. crop against signs that Chinese demand is returning. Sinnel Green will auction another 516,000 metric tons of soybeans on August 12th. That's going to be its third auction. So China appears to be clearing storage ahead of U.S. arrivals, but today's export inspections were really nothing exciting. So for now, the activity seems like courtesy buying ahead of the next US-China meeting in September. But just remember how much of a fizzle the May meeting was. We could see another run on rumors, followed by a meeting that fails to produce meaningful purchases. But overall, the soybean market does remain a production demand story, kind of like corn. The crop looks large, but August weather is not finished, and China still needs to become a more consistent buyer. So September soybeans did end two and three quarter cents higher at 1161 and three quarters. November ended at 1179.5, 3.25 cents higher. And wheat remains caught between improving Ukrainian production and growing concerns about its ability to reach the world market. So APK Inform raised its Ukrainian production forecast slightly, but actually lowered exports considerably. And continued attacks on export infrastructure have Ukraine's egg ministry warning that storage of grain could reach 11 million bacteric tons. Export inspections this morning for the US were in line with expectations and reached a marketing year high. However, year-to-date shipments do remain well behind last year and below the pace implied by the USDA's current forecast. So the weed store is becoming less about how much grain Ukraine produces and more about how much it can store and export. And that may support prices, but U.S. exports still need to improve before demand becomes a larger part of the story here. September Chicago weed did close less than a penny higher at 640 and a half. September KC closed less than a penny lower at 713.5. And September Minneapolis continues to face harvest pressure here, actually closing 9.5 cents lower today at 670. And most livestock contracts posted small triple-digit gains here to start the week. Live cattle and feeder cattle stopped the sell-off that began on Thursday, while lean hogs added to their gains that started on Friday. So you could say the market had very little news to work with today. Box beef was very strong this morning with the cutout jumping $7.21 higher. And this could be an early sign of Labor Day demand beginning to show up. The supply side of the cattle story really hasn't changed. Fat cattle numbers are short, and so are feeder cattle. The only part of the story that has changed is the reopening of the Mexican border, and that remains a big onknown for the market. So far, the market has digested the issue about as well as it can could be expected. But what was unusual about today's action in the feeder market was the bear spreading that took place. Um since the announcement of the border reopening, traders have generally been bull spreading the feeder market. And if this bear spreading continues, it could indicate that traders are expecting a huge influx of feeder cattle into the country once that border opens in two weeks. So we don't believe that's gonna happen. We will take time for cattle to really begin moving across the border in significant numbers, and we don't expect an overwhelming supply to hit the U.S. market immediately. August live cattle were up $1.57.5, closing at $233.27.5. December was up $1.80, closing at $225.95. August feeders were down 90 cents, closing at $3.50.75, and October was up 95 cents, closing at $335.87.5. October lean hogs have now rallied back to resistance. Now that the market is there, the question is what will the bulls do about it? Uh the story really hasn't changed in the lean hog market either. There are plenty of market ready hogs and demand has been sluggish. Something will have to change if this market's going to continue its upward move. October Leanhogs, we're up $1.45, closing at $83.67.5. February was up $1.35, closing at $78.47.5. So again, if you have any questions, feel free to reach out. Otherwise, have a great night. We'll talk to you again tomorrow.