Daily Market Cast: 8/3

Daily Commentary: Monday, August 3, 2026 

Transcript

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Hey everyone, this is Allison giving you today's Siddly Green Market commentary for Monday, August 3rd. And after trading lower overnight in sympathy of crude, green markets turned higher today. And it was certainly an impressive turn following last week's surrender to the 50% uh retracement of that rally from the June 30th lows. So today's bounce is certainly encouraging, but it does remain an attempt to stabilize, not yet confirmation that the correction is over. But weather had a lot to do with it today. Dry conditions remain across the southern Canadian prairies, northern U.S. plains, where yield loss has likely already occurred. And cooler temperatures this week should at least slow further deterioration, but we're looking at that ridge actually starting to rebuild around August 9th and 10th. So the Midwest should receive some periodic rain. That'll help conditions stay mostly favorable for a lot of places, but a forecast becomes a lot less certain here beyond the next week. And weather concerns are also building overseas. The big news item today was a heat wave actually threatening corn, soybeans, and rice across key production areas in eastern and northern China, including a region that's responsible for roughly 17% of the country's corn production. And on top of that, Western Europe remains pretty warm and dry as well, with limited rain across France, Germany, and portions of Ukraine. So right now, the market's looking at what crops are facing. Corn still facing grain fills, soybeans have the critical month of August podfill ahead, and we continues to find support from dryness across the plains, Canadian prairies, and Europe. So the 50% retracement may become a reload point here for the bulls, but the market must build on today's strength going through the rest of the week. And some areas missed last week's rainfall, including northwestern Iowa, where meaningful rain has been limited since July 3rd. So from the road, the crop still looks good. And that is what scouts are seeing when they submit their weekly crop condition reports. However, this crop may be more deceiving than it appears, and not just in northwestern Iowa. Growing degree days are pushing development too quickly, which is not favorable for yield potential. And when even where moisture has been adequate, rapid development may limit yield. In drought-stressed areas, the impact will be greater. And the losses may also be difficult to identify during field checks. Some tip back will likely show up in the hardest-hit areas, but much of the damage could surface through lighter test weights rather than the crop's outward performance. USD is typically slow on recognizing test weight losses, meaning that the full impact here may not appear until November or even in the January reports. So we do not expect another national yield near last year's 186 bushels per acre. And the USD's current projection of 183 may also prove pretty difficult to achieve here. September corn did close 8.5 cents higher at 449 and a quarter. December also finished 8.5 cents higher at 472.5. And soybeans continue to struggle despite what would normally be considered bullish demand news. We did see private exporters report 488,000 metric tons sold to China this morning, along with another 136,000 metric tons sold to onknown destinations. So that follows reports that China purchased more than 800,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans on Friday. So demand is clearly developing, but the market's limited response does remain somewhat disappointing here. Weekend rain improved production prospects across the eastern cornbelt and southern Minnesota with additional moisture expected this week. The western corn belt remains dry, but broader weather outlook continues to lean a bit more favorable and may limit some weather premium here in the soybeans. Managed money is now net long, roughly 155,000 contracts, leaving soybeans vulnerable to additional long liquidation if support fails. November futures are testing did test support here near 1176 today. That demand is there, but until prices do start responding to it, the path of least resistance does remain lower until we can establish some better trade here. But it was really nice to see the contract come back and close near um or closer to that $12 mark in November. September settled at $11.73 and three quarters, three cents higher. November finished four and three quarters higher at $11.92 and a quarter. We actually did trade to a high today of $11.94.5. And we led the grain markets higher today as the potential disruption across the Black Sea regions continues to grow. Russia's grain union has warned that continued attacks could eventually halt exports while Ukraine is working to develop alternative shipping routes. But Black Sea headlines alone did not create a lasting rally. The largest moves have occurred when attacks translate into measurable export losses, vessel restrictions, or port closures. And that's the risk today. Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter, and any prolonged disruption would leave a shortfall that alternative suppliers could struggle to replace. European production concerns add to that supply problem. French yields are reportedly down 4.5% from last year, while Poland estimates its winter wheat crop will fall 11% below 2025. So wheat's leadership today is encouraging. The market must now build on those gains if traders want to determine whether the Black Sea situation remains a risk or develops into actual loss of export supply. September Chicago wheat selled 11.3 quarter cents higher at 651. September KC closed at 717 and a quarter, nine and three quarter cents higher. And September Minneapolis ended the session at 695, 5.25 cents higher. And we believe everyone has heard of the dog days of summer. Well, that's exactly what meat demand is experiencing at the moment. Temperatures are hot, consumers are grilling less because of the heat, and families are buying back to school supplies, leaving less money available for higher price cuts of meat or eating out. And in some areas, even ground beef is beginning to fall into that expensive category. So the live cattle and feeder cattle complexes had a good day going until about mid-morning. At that point, selling pressure emerged and continued right into the close. Going from gains of $1.50 to $4 to finishing in the negative territory was not the way either pit wanted to start the week. Cash cattle traded as high as $235 on Friday, which helped support the strong opening this morning. The negative side of the news, however, was that last week's federally inspected slaughter totals, just $513,000 had the smallest weekly kill in six months. And it wasn't because of the short supply of cattle, it was because the demand for beef has softened. Packer margins remain red, so packers are only harvesting enough cattle to meet current product demand. August live cattle were down 65 cents, closing at 231.10, while December fell 72.5 cents to 226.22.5. August feeder cattle slipped 20 cents to 347.825. And October feeders are down $1.65, closing at $3.33.70. Lean hogs started the day on the defensive from the opening belt. Most contracts gap lower and then actually recovered enough to fill the opening gap. But once that objective was accomplished, however, selling resumed, prices drifted lower into the close. Last week's lows now represent an important support level here for the Bulls. If those lows are broken, this year's contract lows could be challenged. October lean hogs have now posted two consecutive inside trading days, which is not a bullish signal. Seasonally hog prices do tend uh to trend lower during August. August hogs were down $1.32.5, closing at $97.525, while October fell $1.17.5 to finish at 83.675. Bear spreading was also very evident in the hog pit today. So again, if you have any questions, feel free to reach out. Otherwise, we'll talk to you tomorrow. Have a good night.