Daily Market Cast: 7/30

Daily Commentary: Thursday, July 30, 2026 

Transcript

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Good afternoon everyone. Today is Thursday, July 30th, and this is Sam with today's commentary. A small flash sale to China and a plunge in the US dollar would normally be enough to generate some interest in corn and soybeans. Today it barely moved the needle. That tells us weather remains firmly in control and traders are not willing to add much premium while widespread rain is forecast across many dry areas through the end of the week. Below we have attached the current drought monitor. The forecast is not perfect, heat topped 100 degrees across portions of the plains, drought expanded across several major crop areas this week, and the second week of the outlook turns hotter and drier, particularly across the Western Corn Belt. Those concerns are worth watching, but the market is focused on the rain directly ahead. Until those totals disappoint or the extended forecast becomes more threatening, weather will likely continue to limit rallies in corn and soybeans. Wheat was the upside leader with Black Sea logistics continuing to drive price discovery and volatility. Unlike corn and soybeans, wheat has a headline capable of forcing traders to add risk premium. The US dollar fell to a six-week low following weaker than expected economic growth while equity markets rallied sharply. That should be supportive to commodities and export competitiveness. However, the lack of response in corn and soybeans is telling. Right now, favorable weather is outweighing nearly everything else. Corn futures had a quiet session, although both September and December slipped to a two-week low as before recovering. Demand remains supportive, but weather continues to carry more weight. Weekly corn export sales were in line with expectations. Old crop commitments are now up, 24% from last year compared to the USDA's forecast for a 16% increase. The current pace suggests the USDA will have to make adjustments of roughly 25 to 50 million bushels of added demand. Demand continues to do its part, however, with rain in the forecast, traders largely ignored the nine-point jump in corn acres under drought to 29%, compared with only 7% last year. The market will need to forecast to disappoint before adding much more weather premium. September corn futures end of the day lower by 3.25 cents at 445 and 34. December futures finished at 468.5, down three and a quarter cents as well. Soybeans also had a quiet session with August and November falling to two to three week lows before recovering. The recent weakness may have more behind it than changing weather forecasts. Rising tensions between the US and China have renewed concerns about future export demand following reports that a Chinese company may supply military equipment to Iran and additional U.S. restrictions on advanced Chinese technology. For now, demand remains the bright spot. New crop commitments surged to a four-year high and are up 146% from last year. China added another flash sale this morning for 132,000 metric tons, and Cinder Grain soybean auction. Friday appears aimed at clearing storage for incoming U.S. beans. If China follows through on 25 million metric tons, there is little room for the U.S. yield to fall below the current 53 bushel estimate. Soybean acres and drought jumped eight points to 26% this week. The market may be comfortable with the forecast today, but August weather and relations with China still matter. September soybeans futures lost 3.3 quarter cents to close at 1172 and a quarter. November futures gave back four cents to settle at 1188. On to the wheat, the Black Sea is once again reminding traders why wheat cannot be treated like corn and soybeans right now. Russia reportedly struck three cargo vessels near Ukrainian ports while Ukrainian drones caused significant damage to a major Russian grain export terminal near the Kurt Strait. With both sides targeting grain storage infrastructure and vessels, so there is little reason to expect volatility to ease anytime soon. The impact is beginning to show up in Russian export expectations. Many private analysts are lowering their outlook with additional downside pauses possible if the situation does not improve. U.S. export demand remains disappointing while commitments are down 28% from last year compared with USDA's forecast for a 15% decline. The uncertainty surrounding Black Sea movement, the USDA may leave its forecasts unchanged. U.S. weather is also becoming harder to ignore winter wheat area in drought increased one point to 48%, while spring wheat jumped 17 points to 42%. Black Sea headlines remain the immediate driver, but expanding drought across spring wheat country provides another reason for traders to remain cautious. September Chicago futures gained 14.5 cents at 675. September KC futures gained 5.25 cents to close at 7.30 and 34. And September Minneapolis finished at 7.11.5 up 6.5 cents. Now onto the livestock complex. Cargill announced it had reached a deal with workers at its Fort Morgan, Colorado beef plant, which has been shut down since April. We're not quite sure how to read this news. We're happy for the workers, but does this signal that Packer margins are improving enough that they are willing to share some of those gains? Or are Packers looking ahead and expecting cattle supplies to gradually increase, improving their margins in the future? Only time will tell. The cattle complex continued the rally that began on Tuesday. There was no cash trade reported as of this writing, but cash could come in touch with higher than a week ago. U.S. beef export sales for the week ending July 23rd totaled 15,100 tons compared to the previous four-week average of 10,800 tons. That is another supportive fundamental for a market that appears to have found its footing following Monday's sharp sell-off. August cattle were up 332.5, closing at 231.22.5, and December was up 340, closing at 226.72.5. August features were up $2.20, closing at $3.46.47.5, and October was up $440, closing at $3.34.2.5 cents. U.S. pork export sales for the week ending July 23rd totaled $35,300 tons compared to the previous four-week average of $26,400 tons. That news did little to help lean hog features as all contracts gap lower this morning and finish the day with sharp triple digit losses. The unwinding of long hog and short cattle positions has been the primary force behind the sharp decline in hog prices over the past two sessions. The market may have one more day of this action as tomorrow is the final trading day of the month, and funds will likely finish banking profits before turning the calendar. October hogs have now fallen more than $5 from yesterday's high. Solid chart support comes in at the June low of 79.77 and a half. That level needs to hold, or this market could get ugly in a hurry. October closed 235 lower, closing at 83 and 35 cents. This concludes today's commentary. We hope everyone has a great evening and we'll talk to you tomorrow.