Daily Market Cast: 7/29

Daily Commentary: Wednesday, July 29, 2026 

Transcript

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Good afternoon, everyone. Today is Wednesday, July 29th, and this is Sam with today's commentary. Today's session proved that not every market listens to the same headline. Renewed fighting between the U.S. and Iran sent crude sharply higher after Iran fired ballistic missiles at an American airbase in Jordan. President Trump has promised a U.S. response, pushing both WTI and Brent Crude over $6 a barrel higher during the session. Ukraine also struck Raznev's Ryzan refinery, one of Russia's largest oil processing facilities. Between renewed escalation in the Middle East and continued attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, crude oil had plenty of reasons to rally. Corn and soybeans did not follow, however, that is notable. Despite the strength in energy, grain traders remain focused on weather. August forecasts continue to favor timely rainfall and mostly seasonable temperatures across much of the Midwest. As long as those forecasts hold, the market has little reason to price widespread losses into national corn and soybean yields. That does not mean every region is comfortable. July was far more stressful across the northern plains and southwestern Canadian prairies, where heat and limited rainfall have reduced crop potential. Corn has endured stress during pollination, soybeans still need moisture for podfill, and spring wheat is trying to finish without enough subsoil moisture. Those losses matter locally, but they are struggling to outweigh a mostly favorable outlook across the heart of the corn belt. The Federal Reserve added another potential piece to the puzzle. Higher crude oil prices further complicate the inflation outlook, but the reaction in the US dollar may matter more for agriculture. For now, the message from the markets is clear: war is moving oil, but weather is still moving grain. Corn is entering a more difficult stage of the yield debate. Pollination is largely behind us, but recent heat may still show up through lighter test weights, reduced kernel depth, and poor grain fill. That makes the next several days important, even if the crop avoids widespread abandonment or severe ear loss. The August 12th WASDI may not reflect the full extent of the damage. USDA's early yield models rely heavily on satellite imagery and recorded weather, which could keep the estimate elevated if this weekend's rain verifies. Some analysts believe it will be difficult for the USDA to fall below 186 bushels in August, regardless of the recent condition decline. End of month liquidation is also encouraging funds to protect profits after July's rally. The market appears determined to convince producers that prices near 480 were as good as it gets at this stage in the growing season. September corn futures lost 9.5 cents finishing at 449. December futures also gave back 8.3 quarter cents to finish at 471.3 quarter. Soybeans are carrying the most downside risk because the crop still has time to improve, so traders are much more willing to remove premium when moisture prospects improve this late in the summer. November futures filled the charts gap in today's session, which opens the door to the $1180 to $1,190 range. China has not announced a soybean flash sale this week as trade tensions increase. However, buyers already have roughly 12% of their expected new crop needs booked. China's next move will be important. Renewed purchases would help stabilize the market, while continued silence could allow liquidation to deepen. Crude oil strength is providing little support outside soybean oil. The forecast remains the dominant driver. If rainfall verifies, the correction may deepen. If coverage disappoints, weather premium could return by Friday or early next week. August soybean futures end of the day sharply lower by 34 cents at 1178. November futures finished at 1192 and three quarters, down 27 and a quarter cents. Wheat continues to separate itself from the road crops as Black Sea logistics remain the primary concern. Grain can still move through the region, but port closures, vessel attacks, and restricted shipping routes are slowing the movement of the upcoming harvest during an important export window. Russia may eventually redirect wheat through alternative channels and offer it as added discount values. That does not eliminate the problem. Delays and higher freight risk can force importers to secure coverage elsewhere, potentially improving demand for US and European supplies. Production concerns are also becoming more noticeable. France continues to struggle with crop losses, while early reports from the U.S. small grain harvest suggest yields have generally been acceptable, but test weights are disappointing. That may reduce the amount of higher quality wheat available to end users. Kansas City wheat continues to encounter selling on rallies, but the fundamental outlook remains constructive. Continued export disruptions, tightening quality supplies, and possible end-a-month short covering give web wheat a better opportunity to recover once the current corrective phase ends. September Chicago Futures gave back one and three quarter cents at 616 and three-quarters. September KC futures closed near unchanged at 725 and a half, and September Minneapolis finished the session at 7.05, higher by two and a half cents. The cattle complex continued to recover from Monday's sharp sell-off following the announcement that the Mexican border would reopen. It stands to reason that feeder cattle have not traded above last week's highs because of the uncertainty surrounding how many cattle could begin entering the U.S. market. Live cattle contracts, however, have traded above last week's highs and have now posted new 10-day closing highs on most contracts. If you remember, live cattle contracts were down 14 straight trading days during July. We are thinking cash cattle should be at least steady, if not a little higher, this week. It was disappointing to see bear spreading take place in both pits, as that is not what the market needs at the moment. Front month contracts need to lead the market higher. August live cattle gained 42.5 cents to close at 227.90, while December added $2.02.5 cents to finish at $2.23.32.5. August feeder cattle were up $1.20 to close at $3.44.27.5, and October feeders gained $2.80 to settle at $329.62.5. Lean hogs may have started their seasonal decline into the fall today. Sharp triple digit losses were posted across all contracts. The first line of chart support was broken today. And if the bears can maintain the momentum into the weekend, the charts will confirm that the summer high has likely been established. Pork prices were more than a dollar lower today, which should give the cash market a weaker tone. The next support level for October hogs comes in at 8340. October hogs fell $2.57.5 cents to close at $85.70. This concludes today's commentary. We hope everyone has a great evening and we will talk to you tomorrow.