Daily Market Cast: 7/24

Daily Commentary: Friday, July 24, 2026 

Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:00

Happy Friday, everyone. This is Allison giving you today's Daily Green Market commentary for Friday, July 24th. And today's session was a good reminder that volatility still exists. Overnight, green markets traded to fresh highs before profit taking hit the board during today's session. Wheat took the biggest hit with some double digit losses. Corn actually managed to end near unchanged, and soybeans actually managed to trade higher. So what changed here during the day? Well, actually, Russia-Ukraine may be discussing a plan to protect agricultural shipments through the Black Sea. So maybe another Black Sea grain corridor could be in the works, maybe, maybe not. But in today's market, headlines don't have to be confirmed to move prices. After the rally we've seen here, it really doesn't take much to encourage traders to take profits. And geopolitics continue to keep everyone on edge as well. President Trump said the decision on whether the US will launch a massive attack on Iran is coming soon. But at the same time, reports surfaced that US-Iran peace talks could resume, and that's taking some of the risk premium out of the energy markets. So for now, traders appear to be betting on diplomacy over escalation, but that outlook could change with a single headline. And weather hasn't gone anywhere either. Scattered rains fell across parts of the Western Corn Belt here over the last 24 hours, but coverage was spotty. Not everybody got heat um hit, and heat is expected to expand across the plains and western cornbelt through the weekend and into early August before spreading east next week. So rainfall chances remain limited across much of the nation's midsection, meaning crop stress is likely to increase, especially across the western Corn Belt and Northern Plains. So I am including today's 8 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks for temperatures and precip. You can take a look at those. But like we've said all week, the market has no shortage of drivers here. The only question is which one is going to grab the steering wheel next. But corn managed to close near on change today after both September and December futures did push to eight week highs again overnight. Brazil did make some headlines on a lawsuit to block the country's planned increase in ethanol blending, but weather and demand do continue to be the bigger drivers. We should see this afternoon's CFDC report show that the funds have been adding to their long position. And as long as weather remains a concern, we continue to believe that breaks our buying opportunities rather than a reason to panic. So corn futures did have nearly a 10 cent range today during the session, opening the possibility for a daily uh key reversal lower, but buyers stepped in and actually closed near on change by the end of the day. September corn closed less than a penny higher at 464.25, 19.5 cents higher for the week. December ended on change today at 487.5, 20 cents higher for the week. And soybeans continue to lead the grain complex. November and August futures posted new contract highs today, with support stemming from strong export demand and of course weather forecasts that leave a little room for error. U.S. Gulf soybean offers do remain competitive with Brazil going into fall. And while there were no flash sales announcements here to finish the week, the trade does continue to anticipate additional Chinese buying. Funds also remain firmly in the bull camp, but they're still well below their record long position. So with the USDA currently penciling a trend line yield of 53 bushels per acre, same as last year, any weather-driven yield loss could quickly tighten that balance sheet and keep the bulls in control. September soybeans gained 9.25 cents today, closing at 12.40 and a quarter, 46.3 quarter cents higher for the week. November closed at 12.53 and a half, nine and three quarter cents higher for the day, and fifty and a half cents higher for the week. We took the biggest hit today with selling accelerating once prices broke below yesterday's low, and that likely triggered just a wave of sell stops, just adding fuel to the downside after an impressive rally this week. The biggest story though hasn't changed. Black Sea uncertainty remains a major driver here, although today's rumors of potential talks to protect grain shipments did encourage a lot of the profit taking we saw. There are also reports that Ukraine's president could visit the White House next week, just giving traders another headline to watch here. Meanwhile, North Dakota Week Quality Council wrapped up its crop tour with an average yield estimate of 48 bushels per acre. That's down from last year, but still above the five-year average, suggesting the crop is respectable, but not enough to eliminate production concerns here across the Northern Plains, getting into the month of August. So all three wheat exchanges printed daily uh reversals lower today. And while that's disappointing, a pullback here is not surprising, especially after a dollar rally. So, and it's also worth noting that many contracts did manage to close 10 cents or more off the lows of the day. September Chicago wheat did end 18 and a quarter cents lower at 6.6.78, losing 4.3 quarter cents for the week. September KC lost 14.5 cents today, closing at 745 and a quarter, still 13 cents higher for the week. And September Spring Wheat ended 15.3 quarter cents lower at 7.14 and a quarter, still gaining 24 cents this week. In August, live cattle did gain over a dollar today, closing at 227.07. October closed um a dollar, actually over a dollar higher at 222.50. August feeder cattle added $1.55 to finish at $3.45.32.5. And October gained $2.55 to close at $3.36 even. The monthly Catalon Feed report offered few surprises. Catalon feed um came in at 102% of a year ago with placements at 98% and marketings at 97%, all essentially in line with pre-report expectations. So in other words, there wasn't enough in the report to significantly shift market sediment going into next week. The semi-annual cattle inventory report carried a slightly more supportive tone. And while the total US herd was up marginally from a year ago, the beef cow herd declined another 1%. And 2026 calf crop is expected to fall 2%. So reinforcing that meaningful herd expansion remains slow despite historically high cattle prices. And finally, cold storage added another supportive data point. Beef inventories declined 3% from both last month and a year ago, suggesting demand does continue to do a good job absorbing available supplies. So tight production, shrinking freezer inventories aren't enough necessarily to spark another leg higher on their own, but they continue to reinforce the long-term outlook here of on the supply side. And lean hog futures finished the week on a firm note. August hogs gained $1.37.5, closing at $103.025, while October futures added $70, closing at $89.25. Cash fundamentals continue to provide underlying support, although traders do remain a bit cautious here after the strong rally here over the past month. USDA's cold storage report was viewed as slightly bearish, with pork inventories up 1% from last month and 9% above a year ago, led by larger ham and belly supplies. And that increase suggests production has outpaced demand here in recent weeks, not surprising, but it is it isn't enough to outweigh the strength we've continued to see here in the cash market. Cutout values remain historically strong and packard demand has been resilient. And while the larger freezer supplies may limit upside in the near term, the overall trend does remain constructive as long as cash hogs and wholesale pork do continue to hold firm. So the next test for the market will be whether demand can keep pace as supplies seasonally increase here going into late summer. So if you have any questions, as always, feel free to reach out. Otherwise, have a good weekend. Stay cool. We'll talk to you again next week.