Daily Market Cast: 6/22

Daily Commentary: Monday, June 22, 2026 

Transcript

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Hey everyone, this is Allison giving you today's daily gray market commentary for Monday, June 22nd. And Gray Market started the week pretty quiet, but don't mistake quiet for unimportant. We're now just eight days out from the USDA's release of its acreage and quarterly stocks report. Add in that we're also dealing with month end, quarter end, and money flow positioning could become a major market driver here this week. The funds have really spent the last few weeks really reducing exposure across grains. So the question now is whether they want to carry those positions into a report that really has a history of producing surprises. But outside markets really didn't help as much either here to start the week. The US dollar appears pretty comfortable back above 100, which can create some headwinds for exports. It doesn't necessarily kill demand by itself, but it does make US grain a little less competitive, especially at a time when export demand is already really under the microscope. So overall, it just feels like grains are kind of in a holding pattern here. The market's already made a strong argument for lower prices, but now we'll see if the USDA agrees. Because honestly, the bigger questions here haven't changed. Will Chinese demand improve? Is enough weather risk being priced into the market? Did we lose and lose corn acres to tighten the balance sheet? We'll find out June 30th. Onto the corn market. South America really isn't helping the bulls here to start the week. Brazil's crop was trimmed slightly by some private analysts here to start the week, but production remains near USDA estimates. Harvest does continue to move forward, and Argentina's crop is still expected to come in larger than USDA currently projects. Here at home, crop ratings are expected to hold near 68% good to excellent, keeping the rain makes grain story alive. Export inspections were also a little disappointing this morning, coming in below the pace needed to reach the USDA's forecast. So for now, corn just remains caught between a market that may have sold enough and a weather forecast that still refuses to cooperate with the bulls. So July corn did settle six cents lower at 411.5, December close at 439.5, 4.5 cents lower. And soybeans are trying to decide if demand is getting better or just less bad. China remains a key piece of the puzzle here. Imports of U.S. beans into China did improve in May while purchases from Brazil actually slowed. So, but before getting too excited, Brazil does remain China's primary supplier, and U.S. shipments are still running behind last year's pace. That said, the market only cares about where demand is headed, not where it's been. So last week's sale of some new crop soybeans to China just reminded traders that China has not disappeared from the market. Expectations for additional purchase do remain one of the biggest reasons traders are hesitant to really press the short side here across the entire complex. Domestic demand also continues to help as well. Renewable fuel margins remain supportive for soybean oil demand, just providing another leg of support here to the complex. So July soybeans did lose 7 cents, closing at 11.15 and three-quarters. November ended at 1141 and 3 quarters down one and a quarter cents. And we traded lower despite a weather story that would normally get the market's attention. France is dealing with another round of drought, and now extreme heat is being added to the equation. Temperatures climbed well above 100 degrees across portions of the country, raising concerns about crop stress and production potential. Forecasts suggest the heat may linger actually through much of the week. So under different circumstances, that may have been enough to really spark a rally, but instead, traders remain focused on harvest progress here, generally favorable conditions elsewhere, and the looming June 30th reports. That doesn't mean the weather story should be ignored. France does remain one of the world's largest wheat exporters, and weather problems there can quickly become everybody's problem if production losses do begin to mount. So for now, the market just appears to be in a willing to wait to get more evidence. July Chicago wheat did close 8.25 cents lower at 597.5. July KC ended at 633.5, 10.5 cents lower. In July Minneapolis, 10.25 cents lower at 612 and three quarters. And the cattle complex wasted a little time moving higher at the opening following Friday. Is friendly cattle on feed report? Smaller placement numbers were all the bulls needed to spark another round of buying. So both live and feeder cattle contracts opened sharply higher with moderate triple-digit gains. Markets actually pushed to six week highs before initial buying waves started to fade. So once excitement wore off, prices actually turned lower and gave back a good portion of the gains in live cattle and roughly about half the gains we saw on feeders. Cash cattle traded last week at 260, which was four to five dollars higher than the previous week, and provided some additional support here to the live cattle market. Most live cattle contracts did manage to fill their opening gaps by the close, while feeder cattle contracts actually left chart gaps open heading into the remainder of the week here. So June live cattle were up $1.025, closing at $255.825. December was up $1.20, closing at $240.225. In August, feeders were up $3.82.5, closing at $370.425. October was up $4.4.275, closing at $366.025. And Lean Hogs opened with lower gaps this morning, but selling pressure eventually ran its course and the market actually recovered enough to fill those opening gaps. There was not aggressive buying interest though, not enough support surfaced to really keep the bears from extending the decline. Lean hogs just continue to struggle with weaker cash markets, preventing type of seasonal rally most traders were anticipating. So Thursday's quarterly hogs and pigs report will be closely watched. The USDA may have some explaining to do, or some type of adjustment could be made, as hog numbers have been running larger than what the March report had suggested. So ultimately, demand remains a key factor here. Even with the additional hog supplies, demand has not been strong enough to absorb them and push prices higher. July hogs were down 37.5 cents, closing at 94.65. October was off 47.5 cents, closing at 80.85. And again, if you have any questions, as always, feel free to reach out. Otherwise, we'll keep you posted and keep you updated. We'll talk to you again tomorrow.