Daily Market Cast: 6/18

Daily Commentary: Thursday, June 18, 2026 

Transcript

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Good afternoon everyone. Today is Friday, June 18th, and this is Sam with today's commentary. For the first time in what seems like several weeks, the Graham Mercus have something to talk about besides favorable weather and fun selling. Rumors of Chinese buying interest were validated this morning as the USDA announced a flash sale of 132,000 metric tons to China, an additional 120,000 metric tons of soybeans to unknown destinations, and a 285-775 million metric tons sale of corn to Mexico for 26-27 delivery. The soybean sale to China was particularly important because it confirms the world's largest importer is once again actively sourcing U.S. supplies after new crop values became competitive in the global market. At the same time, traders continue hearing reports that China may also be shopping for U.S. corn and wheat. Whether those inquiries develop into additional purchases remains to be seen. But the timing is notable given how aggressively grain markets have been sold since mid-May. The bigger story may not be the volume of grain sold, but rather the shifts in market psychology. After weeks of focusing exclusively on favorable weather and expanding crop prospects, traders are suddenly being forced to consider improving demand. With markets closed Friday for Juneteenth and the June 30th acreage and quarterly stocks reports rapidly approaching, funds may be less willing to press short positions and more focused on reducing risk ahead of potentially market moving data. Corn futures are backing away from this week's high as stronger US dollar and broader commodity weakness encourage some profit taking ahead of the three-day weekend. However, the market's ability to rally despite another week of favorable weather may be one of the more important developments taking place. Heavy rainfall remains in the forecast through month end and crop conditions continue to support expectations for a large crop, yet traders seem less interested in weather and more interested in weather demand can improve. Rumors of Chinese interest helped spark this week's rally while export demand remains solid and global supplies outside the US are not as comfortable as many assume. Technically, momentum indicators have turned higher from oversold territory, and December corn is attempting to build a base above recent lows. The market may not be ready for a major rally, but it appears increasingly likely that the panic selling phase has passed and traders are beginning to focus on value rather than fear. July corn futures lost 3.5 cents, finishing at 4.17.5 for the week. The contract gained 4.3 quarter cents. December futures finished at 444, down four and three quarter cents, gaining three and three quarter cents for the week. Soybeans continue showing the strongest demand story in the grain complex. Recent sales to China and unknown destinations confirmed that lower prices have successfully attracted buyers back to the United States. Weather remains mostly favorable, although funding concerns are increasing across portions of the Delta and Southern Midwest. For now, the market continues to view rainfall as beneficial overall. Technically, momentum remains positive after turning higher from deeply oversold levels, suggesting buyers may continue viewing setbacks as opportunities rather than reasons to abandon the recovery. July soybeans lost nine and a quarter cents, closing at 11.22 and three quarter. For the week, the contract gained nine and a quarter cents. November soybeans settled at 1142 and three quarter, down six and a half cents. For the week, the contract gained ten and three quarter cents. The weak complex has quietly become the technical leader of the green complex this week. Chicago and Kansas City contracts pushed to new monthly highs, a short covering, improving export demand, and concerns over Black Sea exports help fuel buying interest. Global demand has been particularly supportive. Algeria is believed to have purchased more than 800,000 metric tons. Jordan secured additional supplies, and several other importers remain active in the market. Meanwhile, ongoing attacks on Ukrainian export infrastructure continue raising questions about future grant flows from the region. Weather concerns are also providing support. Excessive rainfall across portions of the soft red winter wheat belt is raising disease concerns, while heat and dryness in parts of France have trimmed production optimism. Technically, wheat finally delivered the correction many traders expected after falling more than a dollar from the May highs. While profit taking ahead of the holiday weekend is possible, the chart structure has improved significantly and suggests wheat may have more upside potential than the rest of the grain complex in the near term. July Chicago futures finished at 605 and 34, down seven cents. Kansas City July futures gave back eight and a half cents to close at 644. July Minneapolis wheat settled two and a half cents lower at 623. For the week, the contract gained four and three quarter cents. Onto the livestock, there have been no cash cattle sales reported so far. Today most feedlots are holding off for higher prices this week, but packers have yet to show any willingness to step up and meet those expectations. The futures market closed with small to moderate triple digit losses. With a three-day weekend ahead and the cattle on feed report scheduled for release after the close, traders chose to book some profits before heading home. Even with today's setback, the underlying fundamentals remain unchanged. Cattle supplies are still historically tight, and the trade will turn its attention to Monday's reaction to the Catalon Feed Report. June live cattle closed down 92.5 cents, closing at 254.80, and December closed off $1.47.5, closing at $2.39.2.5 cents. Feeder cattle did rally some by the close with August off 82.5 cents, closing at 366.60, and October off $1.10, closing at $361.75. The numbers above are the catalog feed numbers. All categories were within the trade guesses, but marketings as they came in at 88% on the lowest range guess was 88.2%. The replacements came in at 90%, which was 4% below the average trade guess. Overall, this report should be supportive to prices on Monday's opening. Lean hogs experienced an ebb and flow session with trading ranges that were fairly typical for the day. Next week, the USDA will release the June quarterly hogs and pigs report. Hopefully, that report can provide some answers as to where all these pit hogs are coming from. Production has continued to exceed expectations, weighing on deferred contracts. Experts remain one of the high bright spots for the hog market, currently running above 4% above a year ago, which has been a blessing for the industry. However, today's export sales report showed some weakness with weekly sales coming in at roughly half of the previous four week average. August hogs are up 22 and a half cents, closing at 96.72 and a half, and October was up a nickel at 81.32.5. This concludes today's commentary. We hope everyone has a great weekend. We'll talk to you next week.