Daily Market Cast: 6/17

Daily Commentary: Wednesday, June 17, 2026 

Transcript

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Good afternoon everyone. Today is Wednesday, June 17th, and this is Sam with today's commentary. The broad market is on pins and needles with geopolitical headlines driving the trade. President Trump said the Iran agreement is not final yet, and warned military action could resume if talks fall apart. At the same time, reports suggested the deal could be signed sooner than expected. That whip sod crude oil, which rallied above $79 before giving most of it back by the close. Energy had fundamental support too. U.S. crude stocks fell 8.3 million barrels last week above expectations. Supplies remain tight for this time of year, so the market does not need much of a headline to move. For grains, the straight of her moves matters because it is tied to both energy and trade flows into the Middle East and Asia. A reopening can spark grain buying from importers that have been sidelined by the disruption. The region depends on imports for roughly 90% of its food needs, and data shows May grain imports were down more than 50% from last year. That sounds more like delayed demand than destroyed demand. The USDA also confirmed 372,000 metric tons of US soybeans sold to unknown destinations, adding to the supportive tone. Whether that buyer is China or not, it tells us global buyers are watching value. The other piece is technical. Several grain contracts made new lows earlier this week, but some are now trying to post weekly key reversals. That does not prove the lows are in, but it does suggest selling maybe getting tired. For now, the market is still trading headline to headline, but at least grains are starting to show a few signs of life. One note, grain markets are open normal trading hours for tomorrow's day session. After that, markets will remain closed until Sunday night due to the Juneteenth holiday. Tomorrow's close will be important. Corn futures continue working through what appears to be an overdue corrective bounce after one of the most aggressive sell-offs of the year. Rumors of Chinese interest in U.S. agricultural commodities helped attract buyers back into the market, while funds were estimated buyers of more than 12,000 contracts yesterday. Whether China ultimately purchases corn remains uncertain, but the market is beginning to view U.S. values as attractive following the sharp decline from May highs. Technically, momentum indicators have turned higher from deeply oversold conditions, suggesting the market may have established at least a temporary low. December corn is targeting retracement resistance between 461 and 470, while support remains near recent lows. Fundamentally, crop conditions improved another point to 68% good to excellent, and forecasts continue calling for ample moisture through month end. However, with crude oil stabilizing, funds covering shorts, and traders becoming cautious ahead of the June 30th reports, the path of least resistance may finally be shifting higher in the short term. July corn futures gained 7.25 cents, finishing at 421. December corn futures gained six and a quarter cents to close at 448.3 quarter. Soybeans remain the leader of the grain complex as rumors of Chinese buying interest continue circulating through the market. Most sales have been confirmed, but the fact futures rallied sharply on the headlines and held those gained grains suggests traders believe there may be substance behind the story. New crop U.S. soybeans have become increasingly competitive against Brazilian supplies following the nearly dollar break since mid-May, making fall purchases more attractive for importers. Technically, indicators have improved considerably. Daily stochastics have turned higher from oversold levels. Volume was the highest in more than a month yesterday, and November futures are now targeting resistance near $11.68. Bulls will be looking for a flash sale announcement in the coming days to confirm their rumors and maintain momentum. Weather remains mostly favorable, but forecasts are calling for heavy rainfall across portions of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and the Delta, combined with improving demand prospects and an oversold market, soybeans appear position for additional recovery heading into the long holiday weekend. July soybeans futures gained two pennies, settling at 1132. November futures end of the day at 1149 and a quarter up two and three quarter cents. Wheat futures continue benefiting from a combination of short covering, technical buying, and growing concerns over excessive moisture in parts of the soft red witter wheat belt. Chicago wheat has emerged as a leader within the complex, climbing to a two-week high after successfully holding its 200-day moving average earlier this week. The market has now rallied more than 20 cents from recent lows as traders reassess whether the bearish news has already been fully priced into the market. Funds still maintain a sizable net short position, leaving the market vulnerable to additional short covering if momentum continues building. Expert demand has also provided support with several major importers actively tendering for wheat. From a technical standpoint, Chicago wheat is approaching an important resistance area near the June highs. Close above that level would improve the chart structure considerably and could encourage additional buying interest. While harvest pressure remains a headwind, wheat has finally begun showing signs that a meaningful corrective rally may be underway. July Chicago futures gained 16 and 3 quarter cents at 612 and three quarters. July Kansas City futures closed at 18.3 quarter cents higher at 652.5, and July Minneapolis futures finished at 625 and a quarter, up 13.25 cents. October Lean Hogs printed a new low for the move today, but the bears were unable to keep control of the market. Buying surfaced immediately after the low was established and continued throughout the session. By the close, October hogs finished above yesterday's high, creating a daily reversal to the upside on the charts. One day does not change the trend, but it is a start. The market had become oversold and was due for a correction. A trend change, however, has yet to be confirmed. July hogs will have to work closer to where the cash index is trading as that contract expires in three weeks. July hogs finished down 15 cents at 94.65, while October gained $1.35 to close at 81.27.5. Tomorrow's Catalon feed report estimates call for on-feed numbers at 102.5% of a year ago, with estimates ranging from 101.7 to 103.8% compared to 98.8% last year. Placements are expected to average 94% with estimates ranging from 89 to 104 versus 92.2 a year ago. Marketings are estimated at 89.2% with a range of 88.2 to 91.5% compared to 89.9% last year. With markets closed Friday, traders will not have the opportunity to react to the report until Monday. We expect the report to once again be viewed as friendly since the overall supply picture is not changing much. While cattle on feed may be larger than a year ago, much of that increase can be attributed to drought conditions forcing feeders into feedlots earlier than normal. The cattle complex actually experienced one of its quietest sessions in several weeks. Trading ranges were relatively narrow considering the volatility seen recently. No cash cattle sales were reported today, but expectations remain that cash prices will trade higher than last week. June live cattle gained 42.5 cents to close at 20.5.72.5, while December live cattle slipped 22.5 cents to finish at 240.50 cents. August feeders added 55 cents to close at 367.42.5. And October feeders were up 42.5 cents at 362.85. This concludes today's commentary. We hope everyone has a great evening, and we'll talk to you tomorrow.