Daily Market Cast: 6/15

Daily Commentary: Monday, June 15, 2026 

Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:00

Good afternoon everyone. Today is Monday, June 15th, and this is Sam with today's commentary. Overnight trade opened as expected after President Trump stated yesterday that a peace deal with Iran was now complete, and that plans were in place to reopen the Strait of Premuse. An official signing ceremony is expected to take place in Switzerland on Friday. So far, Iran has confirmed the deal, but maintains it will not go into effect until the agreement is signed. Negotiations over Iran's nuclear program and economic sanctions are also expected to continue over the next 60 days. In other words, progress has been made, but it is not done yet. Still, energy markets reacted first and they reacted hard. War premium was removed and grains followed right along with it. But as we know, the day session can be a different animal. That is exactly what happened today. Corn and soybeans were hit hard overnight with several contracts making fresh lows, but once the day session got going, the selling started to dry up. Buyers showed up, shorts covered, and both corn and soybeans were able to claw back from the overnight lows. Our take is pretty simple. The market already had a lot of this news priced in. This is not the first time this headline has rolled through the market. Funds were massive sellers last week, and grains had already spent several sessions removing risk premium before the news hit. In fact, funds sold a record amount of agricultural commodities last week. That does not mean the selling is over, but it does suggest a lot of the liquidation tied to the Iran situation had already taken place. The market had already been through a run and dump phase before the headlines crossed the wires. So while the overnight reaction made sense, the day session suggested the market may have already done a lot of the work ahead of time. That matters, it does not mean the lows are in, it does not mean the trend has changed, but after this kind of selling pressure we have seen lately, a market that makes new lows and then refuses to stay there deserves some attention. Now the question is whether this was just a short covering bounce or the first sign that the market is getting tired of going lower. Corn futures continues searching for a floor after one of the most aggressive breaks of the year. In fact, record outflows for fund positioning in corn. Managed money liquidated more than 121,000 contracts last week, pushing funds back into a small net short position for the first time since February. The market has now achieved the downside objective from the widely watched double bottom double top pattern near 487, leaving traders focused on whether values can stabilize ahead of month end reports. Weather remains the biggest obstacle for the bulls. Weekend rainfall was widespread across key growing regions, and forecasts continue to favor above normal moisture and moderate temperatures. While some localized flooding occurred, the market believes the net benefit of the recent rains outweighs the damage. Technically, downside momentum is becoming difficult to sustain, suggesting corn may be entering a period of consolidation. However, without a weather threat or a meaningful improvement in demand, rallies are likely to attract sailing pressure. July corn futures closed two and three quarter cents higher at 4.15 and a half. December corn futures gained one and a half cents at 441.3 quarter. So it means remain caught between major chart support and a generally bearish outside market environment. Lower crude oil prices continue weighing on soybean oil, removing one of the strongest sources of support for the soy complex this spring. At the same time, favorable growing conditions across much of the Midwest are reinforcing expectations for a large crop. November futures tested an important support zone near 1110, an area that corresponds with several previous highs from last year and longer-term trend support. Holding this level could spark a recovery toward the mid-11 dollar range, but a decisive break lower would shift attention toward the lower end of the longer-term trading range. Fund liquidation has slowed but remains a concern as traders continue reducing risk heading deeper into the growing season, just like corn funds exited long positions at a record pace last week, but remain that long. Expert demand has been steady but not strong enough to offset favorable weather and weakness in the energy markets. As a result, technical support remains the most important factor to watch in the near term. July soybeans end of the day at $11.19 and a quarter quarter, higher by $5.34 cents. November futures gained 2.3 quarter cents to settle at 11.34 and three quarters. Wheat futures continue struggling to generate sustained buying interest despite ongoing concerns in portions of the global production outlook, ample world supplies, and improving harvest progress remain the dominant themes, limiting the market's ability to build momentum. While Chicago and Kansas City wheat have faced more pressure recently compared to Minneapolis, the roles were flipped once again today. Attention is gradually shifting away from winter wheat harvest activity and towards spring wheat development across the northern plains and Canada. Recent weather has generally been favorable, but spring wheat still carries the greatest weather risk moving into the heat of the summer. That has helped Minneapolis futures maintain better relative strength compared to winter wheat contracts. Funds were sellers again last week, adding to the broader liquidation across the grain markets. Even so, spring wheat continues holding key support levels better than other grain contracts. If weather concerns emerge later this season, Minneapolis wheat may be the first market to attract speculative buying interest. July Chicago futures gained five and a quarter cents to close at 589.34. July Kansas City futures finished at 640 higher by 5.5 cents. And July Minneapolis settled at 616 down two and a quarter cents. Onto the livestock, JVS announced on Friday that it will be closing two beef facilities. One is its slaughter facility in Sauderton, Pennsylvania, which processes approximately 2,000 head per day and employs around 1,900 people. The second is a value-added facility in Memphis, Tennessee, which employs about 200 people. The market largely absorbed this news without much weakness as rumors of the closures had circulated during Friday's session. In all reality, the announcement is not much of a surprise considering the limited cattle supplies availability in the industry. Cash cattle traded late Friday at prices that were $1 to $2 lower than the previous week, with sales reported near $255. The cattle complex participated in today's broad base buying across the financial markets, with live and feeder cattle contracts posting small to moderate triple digit gains. June cattle were up 75 cents, closing at 250.62.5, and December was up 280, closing at 235.87 and a half. August feeders were up $4.12.5, closing at $361.55, and October was up $5.17.5, closing at $3.56.10. There are now nine reported cases of New World Screwworm in the United States. If another shoe were to drop, it would likely be the first confirmed human case. Such news could have a short-term negative impact on the cattle market, but we do not believe it would create a lasting issue for the industry. Lean hog features continue to struggle to establish an uptrend. Nearby summer contracts managed to avoid poison new lows, but deferred contracts did register fresh contract lows to date. All lean hog contracts finished the session with moderate losses. There have been reports of the scarcity of feeder pigs. We can't confirm such a statement. It could be rumors just to help the market. Looking at the most recent data from the USDA, they claim that this group of pigs should be equal to a year ago, but what is surprising is that the value of iso wine pig is running $9 higher than a year ago. The demand has been good, is what this is telling us. August hogs were 57.5 cents lower, closing at 96.57 and a half, and October was off $1.15, closing at $80.22.5. This concludes today's commentary. We hope everyone has a great evening, and we will talk to you tomorrow.