Daily Market Cast: 6/12

Daily Commentary: Friday, June 12, 2026

Transcript

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Good afternoon everyone. Today is Friday, June 12th, and this is Sam with today's commentary. Grain futures are under pressure again to end the week as favorable weather, weaker energy markets, and continued fund selling remain the dominant market themes. The trade has largely moved past this week's USDA report and is once again focused on crop development, weather forecasts, and the June 30th Acreage and Quarterly Stocks Report. Across much of the Corn Belt, moisture remains adequate to excessive, limiting concerns about yield potential as crops head deeper into the growing season. While there are isolated areas dealing with ponding and excess rainfall, traders continue viewing current conditions as favorable in the aggregate. As a result, weather premium remains difficult to justify. Outside markets are offering little support, crude oil has broken below several key chart levels as traders continue reacting to headlines surrounding potential Middle East peace negotiations. Lower energy prices have removed additional inflation premium from the commodity sector and continue weighing on grain sentiment. Even so, corn, soybeans, and spring wheat are beginning to stabilize after an aggressive round of liquidation pushed values to multi-month lows. While additional downside cannot be ruled out, a significant amount of bearish news has already been incorporated into prices. Current crop insurance guarantees near 462 for corn, 1109 for soybeans, and 619 for spring wheat continue providing a meaningful safety net for unpriced production. Because of that, market attention is gradually shifting away from protecting against every additional penny of downside and toward identifying opportunities that may develop if weather concerns or demand improvements emerge later this summer. Until the market finds a weather threat, stronger export demand, or a shift in outside market direction, traders remain cautious, but signs are beginning to emerge that the recent wave of selling may be losing momentum. Corn futures continue to struggle as funds remain aggressive sellers and favorable weather forecasts keep buyers on the sidelines. The market has now pushed to fresh contract lows, breaking below support levels that held for much of the past two years. From a technical perspective, this is concerning as new lows often attract additional algorithmic and trend following selling. Expert demand remains one of the few supportive features. Weekly expert sales were solid and continued to outperform seasonal expectations, but traders are increasingly questioning how much additional demand can be captured with South American production estimates continuing to grow. Weather remains the primary driver of forecasts continue calling for adequate moisture and moderate temperatures as the crop moves toward pollination. Until traders see a meaningful threat to yield potential, rallies are likely to remain limited. The market needs either a significant weather concern or unexpected demand from a major buyer such as China to shift sentiment. July corn futures closed a penny higher at 412 and three-quarters, and for the week, the contract lost four and three-quarter cents. December futures gained three-quarters of a cent to finish at 440 and a quarter. For the week, the contract lost five and three-quarter cents. Soybean futures continue drifting lower as favorable weather and uncertainty surrounding Chinese demand weigh on the market. Unlike corn, soybeans are still holding above several important support levels, but momentum remains pointed lower as funds continue reducing exposure across the grain complex. Crude oil weakness has added pressure to the soybean complex, particularly through soy oil, as traders remove inflation and energy-related premium from the market. At the same time, China remains noticeably absent from the new crop buying programs, leaving traders reluctant to build a weather premium this early in the growing season. Technically, November futures continue testing support near last year's highs around the 11.30 area. A failure to hold that level could trigger another round of selling pressure. While biofuel demand remains supportive longer term, the market will likely need either weather concerns or evidence of stronger export demand to regain momentum. July soybeans lost one and three quarter cents, settling at 11.13 and a half. For the week, the contract lost eight cents. November futures end of the day down two cents at 11.32. For the week, the contract lost five and a half cents. Wheat futures remain on the defensive as harvest pressures build and global supplies continue overshadowing domestic production concerns. While portions of the U.S. wheat crop have struggled with drought and yield concerns this season, traders remain focused on the broader global supply picture and aggressive competition from the Black Sea region. Expert demand has been respectable to start the new marketing year, but the market continues viewing world supplies as adequate. Russian wheat remains the benchmark for global values and continues limiting upside potential for U.S. wheat. From a technical standpoint, wheat has been unable to separate itself from weakness in corn and soybeans. Fun selling, seasonal harvest pressure, and improving weather forecasts have all contributed to the recent decline. Longer term, drill concerns in portion of the plains and spring wheat areas bear watching, but for now the market appears more concerned with near-term supply than potential production risks. July Chicago futures lost two and a quarter cents to close at 584.5. Kansas City July gave back less than a penny at 634.5. July Minneapolis futures settled at 618 and a quarter, down one and a quarter cents. For the week the contract gave back one and a quarter cents. Now onto livestock. For the week, live cattle finished essentially unchanged while feeder cattle gained roughly $4. In our opinion, that was a victory for the market. The New World Screwworm issue has been pushed to the back burner for now, but the situation continues to simmer beneath the surface. The question that still needs to be answered is whether beef demand has weakened since the first case was announced. Up to this point, there has been little evidence of demand erosion, although it may still be too early to draw any firm conclusions. Consumer beef prices continue to tell the story. During the month of May, ground beef prices averaged $7.6 per pound, which is 13% higher than a year ago. Despite all the rhetoric from the administration and the actions that have been taking in attempt to lower beef prices, the market has been unable to bring prices down. For beef producers, that remains a positive development. Strong consumer demand combined with historically tight cattle supplies continues to support the outlook for the cattle complex. June live cattle were off $1.60, closing at $2.49.87.5, and December was off $1.62.5, closing at $2.33.7.5. August feeders were off $2.22.5, closing at $3.57.42.5. There was no cash cattle reported as of this writing. Lean hogs, on the other hand, closed lower for the week. The news hasn't changed. There is too much supply of pork and the daily slaughter numbers have not fallen into the seasonal pattern yet. June went off the board today with July trading at a premium. This gap that was left today will attract the market to that level. October lean hogs did print a new low today but managed to close higher. October was up 30 cents, closing at 81.37 and a half. And June went off the board at 92.52 and a half, which was off 25 cents. July will now start out on the continuous hog chart at 97.45 cents. This gap will be the target for the bears. There was some positive news on the product side as cutouts were over $3 higher today. Along with that, cash hogs were higher for the week as well. It's not all doom and gloom. We like buying October hogs around $80 for a spec trade. This concludes today's commentary. We hope everyone has a great weekend and we will talk to you next week.