Daily Market Cast: 6/11

Daily Commentary: Thursday, June 11, 2026

Transcript

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Good afternoon everyone. Today is Thursday, June 11th, and this is Sam with today's commentary. The USDA largely delivered what the trade expected in today's June WASDI report. Unfortunately for the Bulls, as expected, simply wasn't good enough. From a market perspective, the report leans bearish simply because the USDA failed to give the Bulls anything new to work with. Corn and soybean balance sheets remain comfortable, South American production keeps getting larger, and the market is still looking at mostly favorable growing conditions across much of the corn belt. The trade was hoping for a surprise and it didn't get one. Now the market's attention shifts back to weather, and the June 30th, Acreage and Quarterly Stocks reports. The funds have spent the last several weeks taking risk premium out of the market and liquidating lengths. That process may not be over. However, with prices already under pressure and many technical indicators deeply oversold, the bears may find it increasingly difficult to generate fresh selling without help from Mother Nature. Going into month end, the path of least resistance remains sideways to lower, but the market is becoming vulnerable to any potential surprises, weather being number one. The Corn Bulls received no help from the USDA today, leaving the market to follow the path of least resistance lower. We wish we had better news to share. The report itself was not necessarily bearish as USDA's numbers came in largely within pre-report expectations. USDA increased old crop ending stocks by just three million bushels and left both this year's and next year's usage projections unchanged. As a result, new crop ending stocks were raised by 3 million bushels to 1.96 billion bushels. While a 3 million bushel increase is insignificant by itself, a projected carryover near 2 billion bushels is a large number and is one reason the market continues to print new lows for the year. Adding to the pressure is the fact that we are still in a very early stages of the growing season and crop conditions remain favorable across much of the corn belt. We believe the seasonal low in new crop corn could occur earlier than normal this year, potentially around the 4th of July. That is not a common occurrence, but history shows it can happen under the right circumstances. From a technical standpoint, December corn is now closed below the important 445 support level. The next major support area comes in near 432. This level will need to hold that the bulls are going to prevent the bears from making a run toward the $4 mark. July corn futures ended the day lower by 7.25 cents at 411.3.25. December corn futures settled at 439.5 down to 7.25 cents. The USDA gave the soybean bulls very little to work with today. Both old and new crop US ending stocks were left unchanged, while global stocks increased slightly. The biggest adjustment were in the details. The USDA cut exports by 20 million bushels but offset their reduction with a 20 million bushel increase in crush demand. Soybean oil demand for biofuels was also increased, while meal exports and domestic usage were revised higher. The market's recent weakness has less to do with today's report and more to do with favorable US growing conditions and the continued absence of meaningful Chinese buying. Until one of those two stories changes, rallies may be difficult to sustain. From a technical perspective, July futures appear vulnerable to a test of the $11 area unless export demand improves or weather becomes a larger concern. At today's low, it was less than a dime away. July soybeans finished at 11.15 down 8 cents. November futures gave back 4.5 cents to close at 11.34. The wheat bull has received a welcome surprise from the USDA today as the wheat portion of the WASI report came in more supportive than expected. USDA lowered US product wheat production to 1.543 billion bushels below both the May estimate of 1.561 and the average trade guess of 1.555 billion. The decline was driven by lower winter wheat yields, which fell to 46.8 bushels to the acre, the lowest level in more than a decade. Hard red winter wheat production was cut to 497 million bushels from 515 last month, reinforcing concerns that drought damage across the southern plains was larger than previously believed. According to the USDA, the 2026 US wheat crop is now projected to be the smallest since 1970. While USDA did increase production estimates for Russia and Ukraine and raise global wheat output slightly, traders were more focused on the smaller domestic crop and lower than expected production numbers. The key takeaway is that the report was bullish relative to expectations. Even so, wheat futures have struggled to sustain momentum as weakness in corn and broader commodity markets continues to weigh on the entire green complex. Going forward, weather and export demand remain the primary market drivers. July Chicago futures closed less than a penny lower at 586 and 34. Kansas City July futures gained 4.25 cents, settling at 634 and 3 quarter. July Minneapolis futures finished at 619.5, up one and a half cents. The cattle bulls have clearly put the New World Screwworm threat in the filing cabinet for now. Future cattle posted strong triple-digit gains today, while live cattle and contracts added moderate triple digit gains. No cash cattle trades have been reported yet this week, but we continue to look for higher cash prices when trade develops. Export sales data released this morning showed beef exports more than doubled from the previous month. That is certainly supportive, but it should be noted that exports have not exactly been a ball of fire recently, making it easier to generate a report showing significant percentage gains. June cattle were up $1.37.5, closing at $251.47.5, and December was up $1.87.5, closing at $234.70. August feeders were up $5.27.5, closing at $359.65. And October was up $5.7.5, closing at $3.52.80. Turning to the leading hog market, supply fundamentals continue to weigh on futures. Packer margins have slipped back into the red, which means packers are likely to process only enough hogs to meet immediate orders. That strategy can cause hogs to back up in the countryside, adding to an already burdensome supply situation. Junelean hog futures expire tomorrow and close down 40 cents at 92.77 and a half, while August futures gained 47 and a half cents to close at 95 and 90 cents. One positive development for the Bulls is that no new contact contract lows were posted today. It was only a small step, but avoiding new lows is often the first sign that a market may be in the early stages of building a bottom. This concludes today's commentary. We hope everyone has a great evening and we will talk to you tomorrow.