Daily Market Cast: 6/10

Daily Commentary: Wednesday, June 10, 2026

Transcript

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Good afternoon everyone. Today is Wednesday, June 10th, and this is Sam with today's commentary. Macro markets decided they wanted a seat at the table today, just as the grain trade had gotten comfortable, focusing almost entirely on whether inflation and Iran moved back into the conversation. May CPI came in hotter than expected with energy doing most of the heavy lifting, added renewed US Iran tensions, higher crude oil, and a weaker US dollar, and the market was reminded that inflation risk has not disappeared. It may have moved to the back burner for a couple weeks, but it was not gone. For grains, that creates a tug of war. Favorable weather and improving crop confidence remain bearish. Higher energy prices, a weaker dollar, inflation concerns, and geopolitical risk are supportive. The market spent the last two weeks taking risk premium out. Today was a reminder that some of that risk may need to be put back in. Now all eyes turn to tomorrow's USDA WASDI report. Expectations are not calling for major changes to U.S. balance sheets this early in the growing season. Traders will be watching old crop demand, South American production, and ending stocks. Corn exports remain supportive, soybean crush is still the bright spot, and wheat traders will be watching to see how USDA handles poor crop conditions and early harvest results. The bigger question is whether the USDA validates the bear story that has dominated the trade the past two weeks. Bigger South American crops and comfortable world supplies are not new news. They are already part of the reason prices broke. If the USDA confirms stronger demand or avoids piling on supply, the report could feel friendlier than feared. If the USDA adds another round of bigger global production numbers, it likely reinforces the current bearish mindset. Tomorrow may be less about the numbers themselves and more about whether the USDA gives the bears more fuel or finally forces the market to question whether it has already priced in enough bad news. Below we have posted the current trade estimates for tomorrow's report. Corn futures are seeing a modest bounce in today's session as buyers are stepping back in. There has been some large trading activity in the corn options market of large positions that would reflect calling the bottom. Demand has remained the bright spot for corn, however, weather remains the dominant influence. Forecasts continue to call for widespread rainfall across much of the corn belt, along with more moderate temperatures later this month. While crop ratings have started to slip from their early season highs, conditions remain favorable overall. The market will remain sensitive to any yield threat, but at the moment there is very little weather premium being added back into corn futures. July corn futures end of the day a half cent lower at 419. December futures closed one and a half cents higher at 446 and three-quarter. Soybean snapped in eighth session losing streak in today's session as support from soybean oil finally provided some stability, favorable growing conditions, lower crude oil prices, and ongoing frustration surrounding Chinese demand have weighed heavily on the complex. U.S. export commitments remain well below last year's pace, largely due to reduced purchases from China. However, domestic crush demand continues to provide an important offset as biofuel demand keeps processors active. The market continues to look for any signs of new crop Chinese purchases, particularly after White House officials indicated China intends to purchase significant volumes during the upcoming marketing year. For now, traders remain reluctant to aggressively rebuild on positions until either weather becomes threatening or export demand improves. July soybeans finished the day 9.25 cents higher at 1123. November futures gained six and a half cents, closing at 1138.5. Weed futures are posting a much needed recovery in today's session, even though futures levels came off at the overnight highs. The U.S. market had become increasingly expensive relative to global competitors, limiting export interest and encouraging profit taking that contributed to the large sell-off witness the last couple of weeks. While harvest pressure continues to build across portions of the plains, traders appear willing to step back in at current levels following the recent break. Spring wheat is providing leadership, supported by tighter supply concerns and stronger underlying demand. Even with the recent setback, global wheat supplies remain far from burdensome, and production concerns in several key exporting regions continue to provide underlying support. The market may struggle to sustain major rallies without a weather threat, but the recent price action suggests downside momentum is beginning to slow. July Chicago wheat features gained two and a quarter cents to close at 587.5. Kansas City July features settled at 630.5 down a quarter of a cent. And July Minneapolis features finished at 618 up half a cent. Cash cattle are rumored to be trading higher again this week. A producer in Iowa reportedly offered 409 in the beef for a load of heifers, although the sale will not be finalized or officially reported until Friday. Fat news is providing support to the features market today. We may sound like a broken record, but the supply of both fat cattle and feeder cattle remains tight, and there is no quick solution to the shortage. If the economy remains as strong as it currently is, we believe the fall and winter live cattle contracts are undervalued. We are not recommending that producers remove hedges or avoid putting protection in place, but the reality is that numbers simply will not be there this fall. Our recommendation continues to be owning puts underneath the market as protection against a potential black swan event. June cattle were up $2.7.5, closing at $2.50 and 10 cents, and December was up $1.17.5, closing at $2.32.82.5. August feeders were up 22.5 cents, closing at $3.54.37.5. And October was up 82.5 cents, closing at 347.72.5. Lean hog features recovered some ground today after new lows were posted at the opening bell. All contracts except June finished higher. The market may simply be taking a breather from the recent selling pressure, but today's action still produced a lower low and a lower high, which offers little encouragement for the bulls. The bulls will need to string together several more days of higher prices before there can be serious discussion that a bottom has been established. June hogs were off 40 cents, closing at 93.17 and a half. And August was up 72.5 cents, closing at 95.42.5. This concludes today's commentary. We hope everyone has a great evening, and we'll talk to you tomorrow.