Daily Market Cast: 6/9

Daily Commentary: Tuesday, June 9, 2026 

Transcript

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Hey everyone, this is Allison giving you today's daily green market commentary for Tuesday, June 9th. And green markets appear to be catching their breastsale after some selling here over the past couple of weeks. And the question now is whether this is simply a pause before moving another leg lower or the start of the next move higher. And the truth is nobody knows yet, and the markets will still have to prove itself. But the bears still have some good ammunition. Crop conditions remain generally favorable, weather forecasts continue to lean non-threatening, and the funds have been actively reducing risk. So if weather remains cooperative through June and July, it's easy to build a case for additional downside. But the bulls have a story too. Markets have already removed a significant amount of weather premium. Technical conditions are oversold in several contracts, and we're entering the time frame when weather can quickly become a market moving event. And especially this week, crop conditions did not improve like the trade was expecting this past week. So it only takes one shift in the forecast to really change sentiment. So at the end of the day, producers don't get paid for being right about direction. They get paid for managing risk. And right now, risk exists on both sides of the market. Prices could work lower if favorable conditions continue, but they could also recover quickly if weather or demand pops back into the conversation. So that's why we continue to believe in protecting both sides of the equation here. Puts establish a floor and defend against additional downside risk on onsold bushels. Calls can keep you in the game if prices recover on bushels that you've already sold. So the goal is not to predict every market move, the goal is to build a marketing plan that can survive whichever direction the market ultimately chooses. So now is the time when the market's pausing here to get some positioning on. Nationally, corn conditions did hold steady at 67% good to excellent this week. On the surface, that sounds neutral at best. However, the state breakdowns show us some meaningful shifts here. And the biggest improvements were in the Western Corn Belt, Northern Plains. We saw Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota all improving. And that matters. They're the big production areas. And improvements there do keep the production outlook looking comfortable. The eastern corn belt was more mixed. Illinois improved slightly, but Indiana slipped. Ohio remained actually one of the weaker corn states. Nebraska did ease a bit, but Texas also continued to struggle. So this is not a clean, everything looks better report. The crop is not perfect, but even key states have improved to keep the bears at least comfortable for now. So for the Bulls, the national rating is still behind last year. So that gives the market some reason here to pause. But now the forecast matters a bit more on whether it can be maintained or if the trade finds reason to add back some weather premium. So July corn did close less than a penny higher today at 419.5. December settled at 445. In a week with favorable conditions, it was a bit of a surprise for the trade. Yet we did see soybeans trade lower today. So the big question we had was well, why? Well, poor ratings are not exploding higher. Despite the drop this week, poor to very poor ratings held at 6%, suggesting problems are not expanding here. And while that stress is more notable in Ohio and Indiana, it is not a disaster, especially with Iowa and Minnesota only being 2% poor to very poor, and excellent ratings near 80%. So right now the market sees conditions as uneven but not threatening at this point in the season. So July soybeans ended two cents lower at 11.13 and three quarters. November finished at 11.32, 3.5 cents lower. And wheat continues to tell two very different stories. Winter wheat is rated at just 25% good to excellent, which does remain historically poor. The problem looks even more clear with poor to very poor ratings at 45%. That said, winter wheat conditions do typically deteriorate as harvest advances, and harvest accelerated this week to 11% complete. So while condition numbers do remain ugly, the market also sees harvest pressure coming in. And Kansas Wheat did start their harvest reports yesterday stating that 5% of the state's harvest was complete. And while ahead of average, rains and humidity have slowed progress to start with, and it is raising concerns about quality and disease issues. So based on the report, some early test weights have been okay. Yields have really been all over the board. They've been ranging from 8 to 40 bushels per acre. So it keeps harvest reports front and center this week as progress does move further north. Spring wheat is the opposite story. Conditions improved to 52% good to excellent. That's helping some concern from last week's ratings. But with anticipated lower acreage, storms moving through Minnesota and North Dakota tonight and tomorrow, there is some production risk, at least in the near term, which may have helped us prop up today. July Chicago wheat did close two cents higher at 585.25. July KC gained a penny, closing at 630 and three quarters. And July Minneapolis settled at 617.52 cents lower. And the lean hog market is confusing to say the least. Cash hogs have traded as high as $98 this week. The lean hog index though stands at $92.60, and June futures are trading at $93.675. So with the June contract expiring on Friday, these three price levels would normally be expected to converge by the close of trading. However, that does not appear likely to happen here. And one factor to remember is that the lean hog index trails the futures market by two days. So by next Tuesday, traders will have a better opportunity to compare where the index settles relative to where June hog futures expire on Friday. But despite the strength in the cash market, new lows were once again established across the Lean Hog or complex today, indicating that the downtrend does remain intact and selling pressure does continue. So June hogs closed 45 cents lower at 93.575. August was off $1.45, closing at $94.70. And the cattle complex, on the other hand, finally enjoyed a positive session. Live cattle, feeder cattle contracts closed with modest triple-digit gains, despite continued weakness in the financial markets, which actually traded below Friday's lows and remained sharply lower here throughout the day. So it's encouraging to see cattle trading independently from the broader financial markets rather than simply following outside influences. So for now, the new world screwworm story has faded into the background and has become old news to the market. Of course, how long that remains the case is anyone's guess. New developments can always quickly change or bring the issue back into focus. So June Live cattle were $1.50 higher, closing at $248.025. December was up over $2 today, closing at $2.31.65. August feeders were up $3.45, closing at $3.54.15. October was up $3.12.5, closing at $3.46.90. So again, if you have any questions, as always, feel free to reach out. Otherwise, have a great night. We'll talk to you again tomorrow.