Daily Market Cast: 6/2

Daily Commentary: Tuesday, June 2, 2026

Transcript

0:00

Hey everyone, this is Allison giving you today's daily grain market commentary for Tuesday, June 2nd. And today's trade was just another reminder that green markets are currently more interested in tomorrow's weather forecast than today's crop conditions. But the USDA's first crop ratings were not exactly bearish. Corn, soybean, spring wheat all came in below trade expectations. So in a different environment, that probably would have been enough to give the bulls something to work with. But instead, all three grain markets gave way to another day of losses. So the big question we had today was why? And it's because the forecast won. The market looked at slightly disappointing crop ratings, then looked at the weather map filled with rain chances across the corn belt, northern plains, Canadian prairies, Europe, Black Sea, and decided conditions can improve. And maybe they will, but that improvement has not happened yet. So that's the risk in this market. The crop's off to a decent start, but it is not made. Corn has not pollinated, soybeans have not hit their key reproductive window, and spring wheat still has a lot of the growing season left. Yet we saw the market already become pretty comfortable here removing weather premium. So for now, traders are betting tomorrow's forecast matters more than today's crop ratings. That may prove right, but producers need to also remember forecasts are not final yields. So corn futures did continue to grind lower today, favorable weather, fun liquidation. Uh corn was rated 67% good to excellent, below the 70% trade estimate, and slightly under last year's initial rating of 68%. So it again, different environment here. It probably would have held the bulls out, but today they kind of even look past it. But the state breakdown looking at the report was a bit mixed. Iowa was a standout, 82% good to excellent, while Ohio actually lagged at just 46%. So that's a pretty widespread and a reminder that the crop is not uniform. But for now, the market is betting June weather can clean up the weak spots. Weather remains the driver, forecasts continue to call for widespread rain, warmer temperatures across some key areas, and that's just taking a lot of this premium out of the market. So technically, corn had a pretty rough break this week. Um, and after the blowout lower, next support for July corn sits near um the 20, the early 2026 low of 433. December held up better, but it did break below the 200-day moving average today near 468. So next support comes in near 460. That level needs to hold, or it does open the door for another leg lower. So July corn did close at 440 and a half, down three and a half cents. December settled six cents lower at 466 and a half. And soybean futures continue to show more resilience than corn, but they are not immune to the broader liquidation. USDA rated uh the soybean crop at 66% good to excellent, slightly below the 68% trade estimate and last year's initial 67% rating. So again, different environment may have helped, but today the market was more focused on improving weather and above normal rainfall chances across the corn belt. Technically, it really was an ugly day, especially in the July contract. July beans broke below the 100-day moving average, leaving a bit of air under the market. So the next major support area now sits near the 200 day, which is all the way down at 1136. And today we saw that contract uh close 15.5 cents lower at 1165 and a quarter. November beans, on the other hand, continue to hold together better. Uh, first support comes in near last week's low and the 50-day moving average around 1170. So as long as that area holds, the new crop chart still looks more constructive than old. But if weather forecasts keep improving, funds continue to liquidate, soybeans are not immune to more pressure. So we did see the November contract settle at 1177 and three-quarters, 11 cents lower today. And the USDA rated the winter wheat crop just 26% good to excellent nationally, on change from last week and historically poor for this time of year. Spring wheat may have been a bit more interesting, honestly, probably the most interesting part of the report. Um, the trade expected conditions near 60% good to excellent. Instead, they reported it at just 47%. Minnesota was strong, 78%, but North North Dakota came in at 47%, South Dakota at 44%, and Montana at only 40%. So those are not ratings that typically accompany a carefree wheat market, and we know Minnesota can't handle all the spring wheat on its own. Yet we saw spring wheat futures still sold sell off here today. And again, the market chose to forecast over the field. Traders see additional moisture in the northern plains and Canada, and our betting conditions improve from here. Maybe they're right, but still bet. Harvest is also adding some seasonal pressure. Texas, Oklahoma are each around 23% complete. And as combines move further north, the market's gonna shift from condition ratings to actual yield reports. So if yields are better than feared, wheat can continue to struggle here. And if harvest confirms poor ratings, the market may need to put some premium here back in. But technically, charts continue to deteriorate. July Chicago wheat ended 5.3 quarter cents lower at 603. July KC ended at 634 and three quarters down twelve and a quarter cents. And July Minneapolis settled at 637.15 cents lower. And the cattle complex came under heavy selling pressure today. Markets gapped lower at the open and never managed to recover enough to fill those gaps. Some Southern cash cattle bids at 255 were passed on today, leading many producers to believe that cash prices can hold steady this week. We're not necessarily convinced. Packer margins have deteriorated to a point where reducing slaughter levels may once again become a consideration. So the next 30 days could be pivotal for the cattle market if demand leading into the 4th of July holiday fails to match the strength seen during Memorial Day buying, prices could remain under pressure. The cash market does continue to be the key driver here and has led to the rally for much of the year. So should cash prices begin to weaken, futures could be vulnerable here to another leg lower as well. So June cattle were off $1.32.5, closing at $247.675. And December was off $1.62.5, closing at $230.075. August feeders were off $3.12.5, closing at $348.425. October was off $3.55, closing at $341.75. Lean hogs, meanwhile, traded lower during um the early portion of the session, but sentiment shifted after the morning port cutout report was released. Buyers stepped in aggressively and supported the market throughout the remainder of the day. Summer hog contracts posted an outside day bullish reversal, and that's a positive technical sign here, at least on the charts. So the challenge for the Bulls now is follow-through. Similar bullish reversals have occurred several times this year, but to see momentum fade shortly afterward. So this time the Bulls have an opportunity to take control of the market, but sustained buying interest will be needed here to confirm today's reversal marks the beginning of a larger move higher. June hogs were up 67.5 cents, closing at 95.70. August was up $1.37.5, closing at 98.975. So again, if you have any questions, of course, feel free to reach out. Otherwise, have a great night. We'll talk to you again tomorrow.