Daily Market Cast: 5/28

Daily Commentary: Thursday, May 28, 2026

Transcript

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Hey everyone, this is Allison giving you today's Daily Grain Market commentary for Thursday, May 28th. And the calendar is about to flip into June, and with spring planting mostly wrapped up, the grain market is losing a layer of risk. Crops went in with very few problems across the Midwest, and first condition ratings are expected to start strong next week. So if regular moisture continues showing up, the path of least resistance in the near term still leans lower. But this is not a market producers should be complacent in. Today's PCE report showed headline inflation at 3.8% and core at 3.3%, both well above the Fed's 2% target, and that matters. Higher inflation, stronger crude, and you need macro uncertainty can keep a floor under commodities, even when crop weather looks comfortable. So yes, near-term setup leans defensive for grains, but bearish does not mean risk-free. The bulls still need a weather threat or fresh demand story, but honestly, inflation may keep the market from completely falling apart here. So the big question in everyone's mind is what it's gonna take to turn this market back higher. And the reality is the crop is currently focused on those negative fundamentals we just listed. And one reason why December corn has broke below 480 support with the next major support level coming in at 470. So at the moment, the market's digesting those bearish factors, but we do see several reasons prices should rebound once we establish the low. The first and most obviously would be drought conditions intensifying during the growing season. The second would be a demand-driven story, whether from exports, ethanol, or feed usage improving unexpectedly. And the third factor, like I mentioned, and one producer's traders often overlook is inflation. Inflation remains very real, and we saw the economic debt this morning supporting that. So unless fertilizer fuel and other farm expenses collapse sharply, which seems unlikely right now, inflation could continue to provide long-term floor here underneath grain markets. So July corn futures closed three and a quarter cents higher today at 455 and three-quarters. December ended at 482 and a quarter, up four and three quarter cents. And oil seed markets traded higher today, helped by strong crude and renewed concern over Argentina's oil seed labor situation. Um workers briefly went on strike yesterday before the government imposed a 15-day mandatory conciliation period. And that buys time, but it does not erase the risk, especially with Argentina's soy product exports already lagging normal pace. And China remains a wild card. Um there is talk that tariffs could be lowered in the coming days, but China also bought another four cargoes of Brazilian soybeans overnight. So talk is great, but business honestly matters here. Weekly export inspections are delayed until tomorrow, so that just left crude China headlines and Argentina's labor risk in charge today. So a strong close here, like we saw with some double digit gains here, helped shift momentum to the bulls with the broader uptrend for the year still remaining intact. July soybeans did close 9.25 cents higher at $11.94 and a quarter, and November ended 12.5 cents higher at $11.94. And wheat continues to fight seasonal pressure. Larger production estimates in Russia and India, along with normal um headwinds that come with the approaching hard red winter wheat harvest do continue to weigh on the market. The weather is not, though, completely bullish. Heat in Western Europe will stress heading wheat into the weekend, while too much rain across the Gulf Coast and Tennessee Valley could raise soft red winter wheat quality concerns. And Russia's slow spring wheat planting pace is also worth watching. Still, U.S. exports remain on competitive and rallies may struggle until the market finds some fresh news to trade. So July Chicago wheat ended one and a half cents higher at 624. July KC wheat selled at 665.5 cents. And July Minneapolis finished the day at 677.5 cents. And the Cattle Complex did have some very weak follow-through buying at the opening this morning, pushing market slightly higher, but most contracts failed to trade above yesterday's high. The lack of bullish news kept the bullish traders at bay today. Um there were no cash sales reported and cutouts were sharply lower this morning. It also appears that packers have most of their needs covered for um the next week or so. So cash could be lower when they are reported. June cattle were off $1.67.5, closing at $249.75. December was off $1.20, closing at $232.05. August feeders were up $1.60, closing at $363.025. October was off $1.47.5, closing at $3.47. And lead hog contracts gap lower this morning, but the selling pressure quickly faded, and most contracts actually managed to trade above yesterday's highs. Cash hogs are now $1.50 higher on the week, and port cutouts were stronger again today, so both of which are supportive for the market. However, to generate a more meaningful rally here, the cash hog market will need to show some stronger upside momentum. Futures can stabilize on improving fundamentals, but sustained gains will likely depend on cash prices continuing to move higher. So June Lean Hogs, we're off 62.5 cents, closing at 96.975. August was up seven and a half, closing at 100.925. So again, if you have any questions, feel free to reach out. Otherwise, have a great night. We'll talk to you again tomorrow.