Daily Market Cast: 5/21

Daily Commentary: Thursday, May 21, 2026

Transcript

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Good afternoon everyone. Today is Thursday, May 21st, and this is Sam with today's commentary. Another choppy session. Early on, crude is back above $100 a barrel as the market price renewed Middle East risk and possible supply disruption through the straight of home use. That helped pull grains off their overnight lows and gave commodities an early bid. By the close, however, that story had flipped. Reports that the US and Iran may be moving toward a Pakistan brokered agreement sent crude sharply lower and pulled war premium out of the market fast. This morning traders were pricing escalation. By afternoon, they were pricing possible de-escalation. That matters, energy has been one of the key outside support for grains. Lower crude does not erase export demand, wind reproduction concerns, or early season weather risk, but it does take away some of the macro oxygen that helped support the complex. The grain story itself did not change much. There is still enough support underneath this market to keep sellers cautious, but not enough fresh bullish fuel to blow the doors open. Export demand remains respectable, drought is creeping higher, weather is still a story, but for corn and soybeans, the trade still sees this as a watch list issue, not a full-blown yield threat just yet. That can change fast if rain underdelivers or heat builds into June. Winter weed is different. That crop is not waiting on a weather scare, it already lived one. The damage is there, now the market is waiting to see whether harvest confirms losses worse than current expectations. Big picture, today was a reminder that this is still a headline market. Fundamentals matter, but macro is steering the bus. Gray markets will be open normal hours Friday, then closed until Monday night at 7 p.m. That may keep traders cautious about carrying too much headline risk home into a long weekend. Core futures remain under pressure following another round of fund liquidation, but the underlying demand story continues leaning supportive. Favorable planting weather across much of the corn belt is limiting upside momentum for now, while traders continue waiting for clarity on potential US-China tariff reductions and whether that could eventually reopen additional export demand. Weekly export sales were a bright spot, coming in at 95 million bushels and well above expectations with old crop sales reaching a four-month high. Year-to-day commitments are now up 26% from last year versus the USD USDA forecast of up 15.5%, while shipments are running 27% ahead of a year ago. This reinforces the idea that global demand for US corn remains solid despite recent market volatility. Technically speaking, December corn continues struggling near the $5 handle, while support sits near 477. Ethanol production also remains historically strong, helping keep a floor underneath the market even as favorable weather pressures prices short term. July corn futures give back 3.5 cents, closing at 462.25. December futures finished at 485, down 4.25 cents. Soybean futures traded mixed in today's session as traders continue balancing improving technical support against uncertainty surrounding US-China trade. Crude oil was able to stabilize overnight, helping the bean complex recover from early weakness, while hopes remain that reduced tariffs could eventually reopen stronger Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans. However, the late session news of de-escalation between the US and Iran allowed soybean futures to drift into the close. Weekly expert sales came in near expectations at 21 million bushels, with old crop commitments now down 18% from last year, matching USDA projections. However, China remains an important part of the story, with sales to China now totaling nearly 11.9 million metric tons and shipments reaching 11.2. Soymeal demand also remains impressive, with commitments running 18% above last year and well ahead of the USDA pace. Technically, July soybeans continue holding retracement support while resistance near 1221 remains the next major upside target. November soybeans still need to close above 1214 to improve the chart picture. For now, the market still appears willing to defend breaks as traders wait for more clarity on trade negotiations. July soybean futures ended the day lower by 5.5 cents at $11.94.86.3 quarter, down 6.3 quarter cents. Weed futures were softer in today's session as improving planes moisture forecast triggered another round of profit taking following last week's rally. Still, the broader global supply story remained supportive underneath the surface as production concerns continue building across several major exporters. Weekly export sales were mostly in line with expectations, but year-to-day commitments remain impressive at 921 million bushels, which is up 70% from last year and already reaching 101% of the USDA export forecast. Hard red winter wheat demand continues leading the way with commitments up 60% year over year versus the USDA forecast of up 49%. The market is still dealing with mixed weather concerns. Rains are shifting back into parts of the southern plains, but many believe the moisture is arriving too late to significantly improve yields and may instead create crop quality concerns closer to harvest. Technically, the complex has reversed lower after reaching upside objectives last week, meaning the market likely needs another weather scare or fresh global production issue to extend the rally from here. July Chicago futures gave back 13 cents to settle at 647 and a half. Kansas City July futures finished at 687, lower by 11.3 quarter cents, and July Minneapolis futures gave back 4.25 cents to close at 690.25. The cattle complex stayed true to its recent character. Today what was disappointing for the Bulls was their inability to overcome heavy selling pressure from the Bears. Markets closed sharply lower with feeder cattle posting limit-down losses of 925 and live cattle contracts losing nearly $6 in some months. Cash cattle were not the problem as trade was reported between 262 and 264. Instead, concerns centered around the lockout at the cargo plant, poor packer margins, and growing speculation surrounding the Trump administration's desire to lower food costs. President Trump was expected to hold a press conference from the White House sometime today, although exactly what that may involve remains uncertain. From a technical standpoint, the May lows and live cattle futures were violated today, which is a negative charge signal. Attention now shifts to the April lows as the next area of support, roughly another $2 lower in August live cattle. Feeder cattle managed to hold their May lows, but only because of daily price limits. Tomorrow will be the true test of whether those support levels can hold. June live cattle fell $4.12.5 to close at $2.48.15, while December dropped to $5.95 to settle at $2.30.42.5. May feeder cattle expired at $3.69.12.5 down $1.60, while August and deferred contracts all close limit down at $9.25. October feeders settled at $2.49.62.5. Lean hogs also extended their sell-off with most contracts posting small to moderate triple digit losses. A sharp decline in cattle features added pressure to the hog market, but it was not the primary issue. The real challenge remains the weak cash market near $90. Asking bulls to defend June hog features above 97 proved to be too much. Cash demand needs to improve quickly, or the market could face another $5 of downside risk. June lean hogs dropped $2.15 to close at $95.12.5, while August fell $1.60 to settle at $122.5. This concludes today's commentary. We hope everyone has a great evening and we'll talk to you tomorrow.