Daily Market Cast: 4/2

Daily Commentary: Thursday, April 2, 2026

Transcript

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Hey everyone, this is Allison giving you today's Siddly Green Market commentary for Thursday, April 2nd. And as a reminder, green markets are going to be closed tomorrow for the holiday, but will be reopening on Sunday night at 7 p.m. So we're gonna have a normal trading session on Monday. So if you have questions or need anything, as always, feel free to reach out to us. But we do wish you all a very happy Easter and hope you can enjoy it with your family. But what a way to close out the week heading into a three-day weekend. A brief 19-minute primetime update from the Oval Office sent markets into a frenzy overnight. But what's notable is there wasn't much new information. Ongoing strikes, ceasefire talks, and an April 6th deadline were already known. Yet crude oil surged sharply higher on the overnight. And the strength of the May crude contract versus those deferred months does suggest the market is pricing in near-term risk while still expecting some level of de-escalation before mid-May. So traders are paying up for immediate uncertainty, but not a prolonged conflict. And that strength in crude did give greens an early lift on the overnight and into the start of today's session, but by mid-morning the tone shifted. The market's leaning toward a quicker resolution again, and the risk premium faded just as quickly, and the focus turned back to weather. And weather is hard to ignore. Um, we're getting into that time of year. And abroad system is bringing bringing some meaningful moisture across the US uh growing areas. So in the short term, that's bearish. It improves soil moisture and reduces early season stress. So heading into Sunday night, the market's going to be balancing three drivers energy and macros, geopolitics, and weather. So if forecasts verify nothing changes materially over the weekend, the path of least resistance likely leans neutral to slightly lower unless energy or geopolitics reassert themselves. So the key question do traders come back focused on outside markets or double down on improving weather? We'll find out together come Sunday night. But in this environment, technical levels matter. So for corn, retracement levels have been worth watching. And this week's trade broke through the 50% retracement at 451, but more importantly, on a closing basis, it held for the week, helping stabilize the market. Even so, heading into a long weekend full of headline risk, this does remain an area to watch. If it fails, the move lower could be extended to 445, which is a 62% retracement. So meat corn did close two cents lower today at 452 and a quarter, down 10 cents for the week. And for the December uh contract, December futures, the rally from 445 to 498, a 53 cent move, has created its own set of retracements. So the 478 level, which is a 38% retracement, has really emerged as a key pivot. And like old crop, it held this week. So both are likely gonna be some key levels here to watch early next week. But ahead of the weekend, it's not a bad opportunity to get caught up on some new crop sales. December futures did settle on change today at 481.25, down nine cents for the week. And soybeans have also been trading uh between retracement levels. On March 17th, May soybeans tested 1152, the 50% retracement of the move from the January low at 1051 to the March high of 1238. And after a one-day test, we saw that level hold and the market recovered back towards that 38% retracement near 1166. So over the past couple of weeks, the May contract has really settled into a roughly 20 cent range drifting around this area. So it's a range the trade has grown comfortable with, at least for now. So don't be afraid to use this ability to let remaining bushels go. We did see mayo beans end a nickel lower today at 1163 and a half, up four and a quarter cents here for the week. And November futures have held together better than old crop contracts. And part of that may be the markets need to buy acres. Obviously, time will tell. But the risk is gonna be a retest of that March 16th low, which does sit well below the market near 1118 and does serve as key support. So if it if it continues to hold like this, the uptrend can stay intact. If not, momentum could shift very quickly. So for now, use the volatility as an opportunity. If you're behind on sales, use strength to get sales on the books. November did close the week one and a half cents lower at 11.54, up 10 cents though for the week. And wheat, what a week. In Minneapolis Spring Wheat, the May contract was able to hold initial support near this week's lows at 640. Notably, that was also a test just below the 23% retracement. So as long as both of those levels do continue to hold, the uptrend remains intact. Pullbacks are healthy in an upward trending market, and Wednesday session did feel like exactly that. Resistance for old crop does sit near this week's highs of 660, followed by 670, the early March highs. So for those needing to move some old crop bushels, those are some solid targets to keep grain moving. Maine Minneapolis did close um today at 646 and three quarters, up four and three quarter cents and up one and a half cents for the week. And like old crop, the September contract also held key support this week. Next resistance comes into play near 690. And the December contract, however, is already trading above that level. So if you need to get caught up on sales, this is not a bad area to be doing so. September Minneapolis ended at 676.5, up three and three quarter cents, but down one and a quarter cents for the week. December closed at 690 and three quarters, four cents higher and up a penny for the week. And the livestock complex started the day under pressure with all markets gapping lower alongside sharply weaker financial markets. However, as the outside markets stabilized and came off their lows, cattle buyers stepped in aggressively. And that shift in tone was reinforced when cash trade surfaced at 243, giving bulls some added confidence to push futures higher going into the close. So April Live Cattle finished the day$2.15 higher at$246.20. With April now the front month on the continuous chart, the market is closing in on that all-time high of$247.75. At the current pace, it looks increasingly likely that that level will be tested and potentially taken out maybe sometime next week. The contract high for April does sit even higher at$250.925, which is now within striking distance as expiration um approaches here later this month. Feeder cattle continued their strong run as well, posting another session of triple digit gains. April feeders climbed$2.15 to$372.90, while August gained$2.65, closing at$369.50. The market narrowly missed setting new yearly highs on the continuation chart by just$35. So the overall tone does remain firmly bare or bullish here, with momentum clearly pointed toward testing higher price targets. And in contrast, the lean hog market continues to lag behind, trading in relatively tight and uneventful range here. Despite strong demand, it has only been enough to prevent significant downside rather than spark a substantial rally or a sustained rally at that. Expectations that slaughter numbers will begin to ease could eventually lend some support to the cash market, but for now, futures remain range bound. April Hogs closed down 57.5 cents at 90.35, while June fell 70 cents to 104.475. Notably, the market filled the gap left following last week's hogs and pigs report. So with that technical objective now completed, there is potential for some price for prices to stabilize and work higher, but the market will likely need a fresh catalyst to break out of its curr sideways pattern. So again, if you have any questions, feel free to reach out. And again, have a very happy Easter. We'll talk to you again next week.