Daily Market Cast: 3/31

Daily Commentary: Tuesday, March 31, 2026

Transcript

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Hey everyone, this is Allison giving you today's Siddharthy Green Market commentary for Tuesday, March 31st. And today's USD reports offered a clear look at producer intentions. And one of the bigger takeaways is actually what didn't print. Despite all of the noise around the Middle East conflict and concerns over fertilizer costs, those headlines appear to have really little influence on current acreage decisions. Corn is going in the ground at the expense of soybeans and wheat. And while corn acres are down slightly from last year, they held stronger than many had expected relative to competing crops. Soybeans picked up acres, but not to the degree the trade anticipated, and wheat does continue to lose ground across winter, spring, and Durham, just adding to a notable reduction there for 2026. And it's also worth noting that while not necessarily grabbing headlines today, other crops are quietly entering the mix. Increases in canola and sunflower acres do suggest additional competition. And more often than not, that ground is coming out of wheat and soybeans. So that helps explain part of what was printed today. On the stock side, the message was similar, not tight, but not worse than feared. Corn, soybeans, and wheat stocks all came in above Eurogo levels, confirming comfortable supply, but it also didn't deliver a bearish supply message. That helped steady the market and did allow futures to trade higher following the release. So I am including a brief summary of the report if you want to look through the numbers, but I'm gonna obviously break it down. So yes, quarterly corn stocks came in at 9.02 billion bushels, up 11% from a year ago. And on the surface, that's a heavy number and does confirm there's still plenty of supply sitting in the system, especially with off-farm stocks up 21%. But here's what the market cared about. Stocks actually came in below average trade estimates, and that matters. Going into this report, expectations leaned bearish. So instead of a bigger number, the USDA gave us one that was large but not larger than expected. And in this environment, that's enough to shift momentum. It also suggests that disappearance had been better than feared. So whether that's feed, ethanol, or exports, usage held together just enough to keep stocks from getting heavier. And on the acreage side, corn planted area is estimated at 95.3 million acres, down 3% from last year. So while old crop is still comfortable, the market is starting to look ahead and see a little less cushion here for new crop. And that shift from heavy today to potentially tighter tomorrow is definitely help underpinning futures here and gaining a little bit of strength or at least building a floor. That said, the bigger picture hasn't changed. There is still a lot of corn sitting on farms, so that supply hasn't disappeared, it's just been delayed. So while today's report gives the market a reason to move higher, it doesn't remove a ceiling, it just raises the floor. So May corn did close two cents higher at 457 and three quarters, December ended less than a penny higher at 484 and a quarter. Soybeans traded higher today, and the reaction makes sense compared to pre-report expectations. Quarterly stocks reported at 2.1 billion bushels, up 10% from a year ago, and disappearance actually slipped 1%, confirming that the demand has just been okay. But that's not new. It's well understood and largely priced into the market. What stands out more is where those stocks are sitting. On-farm stocks are estimated just up 3% year over year, while off-farm stocks jumped 16%. So that tells us soybeans have already moved into the commercial system. The pipeline's full and supply is readily available. Less about farmers selling pressure, more about demand needing to pull those bushels through. The bigger surprise though came from acreage. Soybean planted area is estimated at 84.7 million acres, coming in below the average trade estimate near 85.5. So yes, acres are still up year over year, but not as large as expected. And that's where the support is coming from here in today's session. So instead of adding to an already heavy V narrative, this report simply didn't make things worse. Stocks are manageable, demand wasn't any weaker, and acreage came in a little tighter than feared. So in this kind of setup, less bearish is enough. May soybeans did settle at 11.71 up 11.25 cents. November closed 13.5 cents higher at 1157.5. And we'd had the most constructive piece of the report today, and the market is definitely taking notice. Quarterly stocks were up 5% from a year ago. On the surface, again, that's bearish. But the bigger story is demand. Disappearance during the quarter was up 12%, showing that usage has improved and is working through supply at a faster pace than the market was anticipating. And then you look at acreage. All wheat acres are estimated at 43.8 million acres, down 3% from last year, and notably the lowest on record going back to 1919. So that's not just a reduction, that's a historically tight supply potential. So while stocks are modestly higher in today's report, the market is already looking ahead. Less acreage combined with improving demand starts to shift the tone from comfortable to watching for tightening. So layer in ongoing weather concerns, particularly across hard-wed winter wheat areas. And wheat has more supportive foundation than corn and soybeans right now. So May Chicago wheat did end the day 9.25 cents higher at 616.25. May KC wheat settled 9.25 cents higher as well at 635.5. And May Minneapolis finished 6.5 cents higher at 658.5. And the cattle complex continues to be an impressive run higher here, posting triple-digit gains across both the live and feeder cattle markets. The underlying story remains on change supplies of the market ready cattle and available feeders are tight, and that fundamental outlook is not expected to shift anytime soon. So this prolonged shortage does continue to provide some strong support to the market. Attention also remains on the status of the Mexican border. Comments from Burke Rollins indicated that the United States Department of Agriculture is considering a phased reopening, potentially beginning at Douglas, Arizona, which is the westernmost uh crossing point. However, any official announcement is still estimated to be two to four weeks away. Prior to the closure, cattle imports from Mexico averaged around 100,000 head per month. So it seems unlikely that flow will be immediately returning to those levels as economics will ultimately dictate uh trade volumes here moving forward. But April live cattle did close up over$3 higher today at$243.025. June was up over$3 as well, closing at$243.275. April feeders were up over$5 today, closing at$369.125. August feeders were up over$4, almost$5, closing at$364.425. And there's also growing concern that the longer the border remains closed, the more initiative Mexico has to expand its domestic feeding and processing capacity. And if that occurs, it could actually structure structurally reduce future U.S. import needs. And historically, the tightest cattle supplies tend to develop when heifer retention is in full swing. The industry does not appear to be at that stage yet, which does suggest if past patterns hold, the market may still have room to push to new highs here down the road. In the lean hog market, the tone has been noticeably different. Bulls have to be somewhat frustrated with the lack year of follow-through buying after the initial positive reaction to the latest hogs and pigs report. And while traders pushed the market higher with a gap uh following that report, prices have steadied and actually trended lower since. So technically, the market now appears to be targeting a gap to fill in the June contract near 104.30. June lean hogs close today at 105.05, keeping that downside objective here within close reach. So again, if you have any questions or want to break down the report further, as always, feel free to reach out. Otherwise, we hope you have a great night. We'll talk to you again tomorrow.