Daily Market Cast: 3/30

Daily Commentary: Monday, March 30, 2026

Transcript

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Hey everyone, this is Allison giving you today's Deadly Green Market commentary for Monday, March 30th. And markets traded mixed today as we head into tomorrow's USDA quarterly stocks and March Perspective Plantings Report, a combination that really does tend to test the tone. So the March Acre Report always brings attention at the first real look at new crop supply, but this year carries a little bit more weight. The onset of the war in the Middle East in late February has raised questions around fertilizer affordability, especially nitrogen. So with acre survey conducted in the first two weeks of March, tomorrow's report may be the first one of the first indicators of whether rising input costs actually influenced producer decisions. So the market has been leaning toward a shift from corn to soybeans supported by a more normal insurance price ratio. And those expectations feel reasonable, but fertilizer does remain a wild card here as we move into planting. And at the same time, stocks will be just as important. They serve as a check on demand and with wide ranges in expectations across corn, soybeans, and wheat, there's clear uncertainty in the trade. And that typically means the reaction matters more than the number itself. So I am including expectations for tomorrow's report in today's commentary if you want to have a look at those. Otherwise, I'm gonna go through them here with each crop. So for corn, acre expectations are centered around 94.4 million, basically in line with the USD's 94 million from the February outlook form. And that's down from last year's 98.8 million. So the bigger theme hasn't changed. Corn is losing acres. That may be tomorrow's headline, but it's an important part of the bigger picture, and that continues to tighten the longer term outlook. There is no question corn demand has been strong through the first half of the marketing year. Trade estimates imply disappearance of nearly 4.2 billion bushels from December through February, which would actually be a record if confirmed. So that's a big number, and it's a big reason the market has been able to hold together. Exports have been doing the heavy lifting, and that has been the backbone here of corn's demand story. Average trade estimates for March 1, corn stocks sit at 9.104 billion bushels versus 8.147 a year ago. So on paper, that's a big number. And yes, that does lean bearish, but the range of estimates is wide, 8.5 to 9.3, which tells us the tree doesn't really have a strong handle on it. And when that happens, the reaction tends to matter more than the number itself. So at the end of the day, corn doesn't need a bullish report, it just needs something that isn't bearish. So may corn did close six and a quarter cents lower today at 455 and three-quarters. And for soybeans, acres are expected at 85.5 million, up from 81.2 million last year. And that's the trade assumption. Beans are the acreage winner here for 2026. But here's the but here's the risk. If bean acres come in lower than expected, even slightly, the balance sheet tightens quickly, and the funds already carrying a sizable long position in the complex, that's where things could get could start really moving here in a hurry. On the stock side, March 1 soybean inventories are expected at about 2 billion bushels versus 1.9 billion bushels last year. Yes, stocks are larger year over year, but not dramatically so. The key here isn't just the number, it's what it implies about demand. And we know exports have been lagging, we know China has been inconsistent. So if stocks come in below expectation, it does suggest demand has been quietly better than advertised. And that's the kind of shift that can really trigger a quick reaction higher. On the flip side, a number above expectations reinforces the idea that demand is still a problem, and that's where pressure starts to build. So at the end of the day, soybeans are a positioning story here going into the report. And just like corn, it's not about the number itself, it's about how it compares to what the trade thinks it knows. So many soybeans did close at$11.59 and three-quarters up less than a penny. And for wheat, acres, all wheat acres are expected at about 44.8 million, roughly in line with last year's 45.3. So on the surface, that's a steady number, not overly bullish, not overly bearish, but beneath that, there's less certainty. Spring wheat acres are expected to land around 9.8 million with a wide range of estimates stretching from about 9 million to 11 million. So like corn, that tells us the trade doesn't have a strong handle on it. And in wheat, that matters. So if acres come in lower than the range, especially with ongoing dryness concerns and key hard red winter wheat areas, this market could really start to build the story quick. Uh, for stocks, March 1 wheat inventories are expected about 1.3 billion bushels up from 1.2 a year ago. Again, slightly larger, but not burdensome. Wheat doesn't need a bullish report, it just needs a reason. So if acres disappoint or stocks come in tighter than expected, that reason will show up fast. So May Chicago wheat end of the day two cents higher at 607. May KC settled at 6.5 cents lower at 626 and a quarter. May Minneapolis closed at 652 up three and three quarter cents. And the cattle complex continues to show underlying strength, supported by firm cash trade and improving momentum. Cash cattle were called three to five dollars higher on Friday, which helped drive futures higher here into the end of last week and carried that strength to today's session. So April Live Cattle posted a new high for the month of March, providing a constructive technical signal here as the market closes out both the month and the first quarter. Fund participation has also increased with managed money adding roughly 4,300 contracts to bring the net long position to approximately 111,000 contracts. So while this is a sizable position, it does remain below the previous record of 157,000, indicating there's still room for additional buying if supportive fundamentals do persist. So from a fundamental salon point type, cattle supplies remain the backbone here of the market. Demand has also held together well, particularly from consumers who continue to afford restaurant dining and retail beef purchases despite higher prices. So as long as that segment of demand remains intact, the market should continue to find support at higher price levels. And at the same time, packer margins remain an important variable here to monitor. Strength in box beef has been a supportive factor with prices up$2.69 at midday today, contributing to last week's stronger cash trade. April live cattle were up$1.05, closing at$239.55. June was up over a dollar, closing at$2.40.20. So looking forward, feeder cattle supplies are expected to remain constrained with little indication of meaningful growth unless the border policies change. And at this point, that does not appear likely, at least in the near term. Feedlots continue to actively bid for available cattle, reflecting strong demand for replacements, even at elevated price levels. So while this trend has frustrated some producers, it's likely to continue as long as feeding margins remain workable. Even so, producers are encouraged to maintain a disciplined approach here for risk. Current conditions are favorable, but uncertainty surrounding potential border changes or a broader economic slowdown could quickly shift market dynamics. April feeders were$1.85 higher, closing at$363.30. May was up$1.50, closing at$361.375. In the lean hog market, futures opened higher today following Friday's strong close, but early buying interest faded. Prices gradually moved lower here throughout the remainder of the session, just suggesting that the market is struggling to stay in upward momentum at curved levels. So while there was supportive news introduced last week, near-term supply conditions continue to weigh on the market. Supplies of market ready hogs remain at or slightly above URGO levels, and this production must be worked through before a more sustained rally can take hold. So from a technical perspective, last week's lows present an important support level. Holding those levels will be crucial here if the market is to maintain its constructive tone. Additionally, the gap higher created on Friday leaves an area from like 103.85 in the June contract as a point here of interest. So this level may serve as a potential entry point for buyers who are unable to participate in last week's move when prices dip below 103. So it was a disappointing close on the hogs here. June ended the day down 25 cents at 105.875. August off in nickel closing at 108.475. So again, if you have any questions, as always, feel free to reach out. Otherwise, have a great night. We'll talk to you again tomorrow.