Daily Market Cast: 3/27

Daily Commentary: Friday, March 27, 2026

Transcript

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Hey everyone, this is Allison giving you today's Daily Green Market commentary for Friday, March 27th. And we're heading into one of the most important stretches of the quarter, and the market knows it. This is still a headline-driven trade, but we are transitioning into approve it phase. The last two weeks have been dominated by geopolitics, energy swings, and policy speculation. And now we're about to get some real data behind it. The market reacted negatively though to today's EPA announcement, even though the framework itself is supportive for biofuels. So simply put, the policy was friendly, but expectations were even bigger. The rule keeps the 15 billion gallon ethanol mandate intact, raises advanced biofuel requirements, and reallocates about 70% of lost SRE demand. All constructive on paper. So why the sell-off? Well, the market really was positioned for more. Higher ethanol mandates, full SRE reallocation, and a stronger overall signal. So this really feels like the classic buy the rumor, sell the fact reaction. So for now, traders are focused on the lack of near-term impact, which is driving the softer tone here going into the weekend. But still, the underlying message hasn't changed. The policy path remains supportive longer term, even if the market does need some time to digest it. Which brings us into next week. Now the market is going to shift from policy to proof. Next week's USDA uh quarterly grain stocks and prospective planting reports are going to be front and center. And this is where expectations meet reality. So for corn, soybeans, wheat, it comes down to one question: Has demand been strong enough to justify where old crop futures are trading? And the prospective plantings report will set the tone for new crop. It's not final, but perception matters. More acres and the market leans heavier, fewer acres, and we start to build some support. I'm also including this week's egg week article that I wrote, uh, grain markets treading water ahead of USD reports, but where's the grain? And really, it just breaks down some expectations for next week's quarterly stocks report, which honestly could be more of a headline than the acres seem to always get. And also, I did present for NCI Northern Crops Institute this week on the Middle East conflicts impact on grain markets. And it was a recorded webinar, so I'm including the link to that webinar below so you can watch it at your convenience. All you need to do is put in your name and email, and you'll be able to watch it in its entirety. So the corn market is in a holding pattern, waiting for the next round of fundamentals uh to really drive direction. Even with sharply higher crude oil today, corn traded lower for much of the session. Somewhat surprising outcome given its typical support from energy. So today's move really felt more like it wasn't sympathy soybeans, as there really wasn't much fresh news in necessarily for corn itself. The lackluster biofuel announcement also may have took some wind out of corn sales today, with hopes for you-round E15 potentially getting pushed even further down the road. So, right now, the market's stuck between two forces supplies that are adequate in the near term, but uncertainty around acreage and the path of energy prices definitely keeps the underlying support here in place. So technically, it isn't all bad. Weekly low is held and key support remains below the market near 458. In the near term, how the market reacts to fundamental news, especially next week, will matter most. But with month end, quarter end just ahead here, funds are more likely to defend positions than step aside or completely start liquidating, at least until they can't. May corn futures did lose five cents to finish at 462 for the week. The contract did lose three and a half cents. December futures lost four and a quarter cents to close at 490 and a quarter. And soybeans are getting pulled in both directions daily. We did have a daily sales announcement this morning of 105,000 metro tons to on no one, but the market didn't respond. Um it really was waiting for some biofuel news. So next came the EPA headlines. And while the framework is supportive longer term, it did fail to deliver anything beyond what the market had already priced in. So that took some of the wind out of the biofuel story, at least for now. So now attention again just shifts to next week's USC report. Stocks will tell us whether demand has been strong enough to tighten things up, while acres will help shape that new crop outlook. So the market's pausing, but both reports will definitely steer momentum here going forward. Me soybean futures lost 14.5 cents, closing the week at 11.59 and a quarter. For the week, the contract did lose two cents. November futures gave back eight and a half cents, eight and three quarter cents today, excuse me, closing at 11.44. And weed quietly did its own thing here to finish the week. And while we saw corn and soybeans struggle, the weed complex pushed higher. But make no mistake, this is actually weather driven. Kansas City is leading that, and it's not subtle. The plane story is getting more defined by the day. And if forecasts verify with little to no meaningful moisture across the southwestern plains next week, new highs are certainly on the table. Uh crop stress is building and the market is starting to believe it. So at this point, rising input costs and a weather story here are no longer hypothetical, especially in the plains. And that what that's exactly what the market's trading. So the bulls are in control, particularly in Kansas City, where the rubber weather premium is definitely doing the heavy lifting. So May Chicago Wheat closed on change at 6.05, May KC futures gained six cents, settling at 632 and three quarters. Maybe Minneapolis ended the week at 648 and a quarter up three and a quarter cents. And for the week, that contract alone gained 20 cents. And cattle caught a bid mid-morning and never looked back. The rally kicked in around 9 a.m. and accelerated quickly. And while there wasn't a clean fundamental headline behind it, the strength was hard to ignore. So from a bullish standpoint, we'll definitely take it. One underlying factor packer margins are back in the black. It's been a while since we've been able to say that, and not a standalone driver, but definitely enough to support buying interest. Cash trade came in yesterday at 235, steady with last week, but feed lots aren't backing off. They're still asking for more, which keeps some of the tension in the system. What's interesting is what didn't help. Crude was sharply higher and stocks were under pressure. Not exactly a supportive outside market setup. So that raises the question: how sustainable is this move? So now we ask, is this the start of something or just a one-day pop? April cattle did close up$3.40 at$238.50, the highest close since March 5th. Feeders were even stronger, up over$6 today at$361.45. And hogs started the day with a gap higher following the hogs and pig report, but the follow-through just wasn't there. The report did lean constructive, but not outright bullish. Supplies came in basically on change from a year ago, which matters, especially given all the talk around winter death loss. So the market was looking for confirmation of tighter numbers and didn't get it. So now the focus shifts back to real-time data, specifically slaughter. So if kills start coming in lighter than expected, it could suggest the report missed something. If not, market may have to adjust. April Hogs did slip slightly down a nickel to 9077, while June held strength up$1.82 at$106.12. So again, if you have any questions, as always, feel free to reach out. Otherwise, we hope you have a great weekend and we're, as always, buckling up for Sunday Night's Open. We'll talk to you again next week.