Daily Market Cast: 3/26

Daily Commentary: Thursday, March 26, 2026

Transcript

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Good afternoon, everyone. Today is Thursday, March 26th, and this is Sam with today's commentary. Today's grain trade continue to show aspects of consolidation with futures closing mix, but the tone across the grain complex feels like it's starting to shift as fresh inputs slowly enter the picture. Lately, the grain trade has traded mostly directionalists on a lack of headlines, but focuses turning towards tomorrow's egg day events at the White House and next Tuesday's prospective plantings and quarterly stocks report. Early acreage estimates of corn near 94.3 million acres, down from 98.8 last year, and soybeans at 85.5 million, up from 81.1, and wheat slightly lower year over year. That points to a shift out of corn and into beans, but conviction remains limited. Survey data was gathered before the Iran conflict, leaving room for debate and likely keeping attention to on the June update for confirmation. Whether an input cost will ultimately shape the final decisions. On stocks, expectations lean larger year over year, but improving demand and increased farmers' selling since December suggests more grain may have moved than anticipated. That leaves some room for a surprise as the market continues to fine-tune the balance sheet. As we move closer to the reports, choppy trade likely persists, but today's actions suggest the market is beginning to shift from a consolidation phase toward more deliberate positioning. On to the corn. Corn is finding support from both policy expectations and strong demand. President Donald Trump signaled to potential farmer support measures coming Friday, but keeping attention on possible biofuel or demand side catalysts. Globally, the fertilizer story is building, supply remains tight with Russia unable to increase production, and higher input costs can shift acreage decisions longer term, particularly away from fertilizer heavy corn globally. Weekly export sales were solid, but the pace remains the key story. Year-to-day commitments are up 30% from last year and running well ahead of the USTA forecast, with Mexico and Columbia leading recent buying. With that, May corn futures closed less than a penny lower at 467. December futures gained one and a quarter cents to finish at 494.5. So it means push higher during the session with both Mayan and November contracts making new highs for the week. Strength continues to be led by Bean Oil, which extended to a two-week high, while Meal found some recovery after early weakness. All eyes are now on the EPA's expected announcement tomorrow on biofuel blending quotas and SREs. Current expectations center around 5.3 to 5.6 billion gallons, with a large portion of exemptions potentially reallocated, keeping soybean oil at the center of the story. Weekly export sales were strong for soybeans, but commitments are still down 18% year over year, which is uh versus the USDA at negative 16%. Recent buying, particularly from China, is helping stabilize the pace. Meal demand continues to outperform, while bean oil sales remained down 50% year over year despite its leadership in price. May soybeans ended two cents higher at 1173 and three quarter. November futures gained two and three quarter cents to settle at 11.52 and three quarter. Wheat continues to build a weather story. U.S. winter wheat and drought expanded another 2% to 57%, a new 52-week high. With more deterioration likely next week, forecast rains remain uncertain until they actually materialize. Export sales were steady at 15 million bushels with total commitments up 15% year over year, running ahead of the USCA's plus 9% forecast. Hard red winter wheat continues to lead demand. The market is responding. Hard red winter wheat futures pushed to a seven month premium over soft red winter wheat, reflect reflecting growing stress across the plains as heat and dryness persist. May Chicago futures ended seven and a quarter cents higher at 6.05. May Kansas City futures gained 9 cents to close at 626 and 34. And while May Minneapolis futures finished the day at 645, higher by 4.25 cents. Livestock markets were notably subdued in today's session with limited price movement across the complex as traders remained on the sidelines ahead of the highly anticipated hogs and pigs report scheduled for release after the close. In the Lean Hog market price action was particularly quiet, reflected in a narrow trading range throughout the day. Market participants appear hesitant to take significant positions until updated supply data provides clearer direction. April Lean Hog futures finished the session 7.5 cents lower at 90.82.5, while June futures posted a modest gain, closing 17.5 cents higher at 104.30. On the demand side, export data provided a supportive undertone. Pork export sales came in above the four-week average and are currently running approximately 2.4% ahead of last year's pace, signaling steady international demand. Overall, the market tone remains cautious in the near term with attention squarely focused on the upcoming report, which is expected to set the tone for price direction heading into the next trading sessions. The latest hog and pig report came in more constructive than expected relative to pre-report estimates. All key categories printed below the average trade guess, which would characterize as a supportive for the market overall. One area of caution is the inventory of hogs weighing 180 pounds and over. This segment could create near-term pressure on the cash market as it implies a more immediate supply of market ready animals. However, looking beyond the nearby time frame, the tighter than expected overall inventory should provide underlying support to deferred futures contracts. As a result, we would anticipate a stronger opening in deferred hog futures in the next trading session. The cattle complex showed more activity than the lean hog market today with all contracts closing higher on the session. Early selling pressure was evident at the opening, but bearish momentum faded quickly. Buyers stepped in and the bulls regained control for the remainder of the day. Cash trading remains quiet so far with no significant activity reported. Meanwhile, boxed beef prices declined by more than a dollar, extending yesterday's sharp drop. This continued weakness in the boxed beef market is not supported for cash cattle in the near term. That set of packers find themselves needing to fill orders without having adequate cattle purchase. There is still a possibility of a firmer cash market developing later this week. However, expectations for higher cash should remain tempered. April live cattle were up 67.5 cents at 235.10. June live cattle were up 95 cents at 234.80. Feeder cattle hosted solid gains across the complex. March feeders, which expired today at$1.65 higher at$363.52.5, and May feeders uh up$1.70 at$351.75. This concludes today's daily commentary. We hope everyone has a great evening and we will talk to you tomorrow.