Daily Market Cast: 3/24

Daily Commentary: Tuesday, March 24, 2026

Transcript

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Hey everyone, this is Allison giving you today's Daily Gray Market commentary for Tuesday, March 24th. And we've entered the truth or dare phase of this market where headlines are driving trade more than hard data, and we're seeing conviction pretty limited. So the narrative is just constantly changing. Trump signals progress, Iran pushes back, Israel adds another layer, and traders are really left trying to figure out what's real versus what's just noise. There were reports of productive talks and a pause and strikes pressuring markets yesterday, but conflicting messaging quickly brought uncertainty back. And the result, we have a market trading credibility, not just fundamentals. And energy, though, it still remains the anchor here. After sharp losses yesterday, crude stabilized, bounced higher today. And that just shows how quickly risk premium can come and go in the market. At the same time, biofuel policy is quietly becoming a bigger story here. The EPA has suggested RVO SRE decisions are coming before month end with possible announcements as early as Friday at the White House egg event. So that's keeping traders on the sidelines, waiting for clarity, especially on demand. And then there's next week, USD stocks and prospective plantings. Then that's a real data point in a market that's already full of uncertainty. So when you pull it all together, um, this market isn't lacking direction. It's just that the market's dealing with too many drivers all at once. So until we see one really take control, expect the trade to stay pretty two-sided, reactive, and quick to punish anyone who thinks they have some conviction. The corn market today had a bit of a turnaround Tuesday, but let's be honest, this market is still stuck. May and December futures both had an inside day of trading compared to yesterday. And until that changes and we break out of a range, we're gonna continue in this environment. May looks content chopping between 440 and 480, while uh$5 does remain the line in the stand for new crop. It's just a psychological ceiling. And historically, it takes a bigger story, usually weather, to break through. And yes, we are hearing some weather headlines. Dryness is starting to show up in parts of the US, but for now it's doing more to aid planting progress in the southern plains than it is to necessarily threatening yields this early. But that said, there's another side to this. Historically, it's rare for corn to put in yearly highs in March. So while we've already tested the upper end, you know, pushing towards that$5 level in December, it doesn't necessarily mean that the highs are in in the market. May corn did close three cents higher at$4.62.5, December ended two and a half cents higher at$4.89. And soybeans still feel like a tug of war. They're really caught between biofuel optimism on one side and some quietly building demand concerns on the other. The renewable fuel story has helped underpin prices, no question, but there's a growing sense that a lot of that bullish news is already priced into the market. Now it's gonna be about reaction. If beans can push to new highs off a biofuel announcement this week, next week, this turns quickly into a buy the rumor, sell the fact type of market. And we've already seen hints of that, especially with the ongoing uncertainty around China. Demand here is the big story. China hasn't shown up with urgency for US old crop, and Brazil continues to hold the edge as a preferred supplier just on price. It's not new, but it continues to hang over the market. Today, May soybeans did sell the session at$11.55 down eight and a half cents. November closed down two and three quarter cents at$11.43 and three quarters. And what and wheat here does feel like a whiplash market right now, really caught between improving moisture forecasts across the plains and still elevated geopolitical risk. Forecasts are leaning wetter here over the next couple of weeks, but if and if that does verify, it should actually start to ease some of the drought concerns. But at the same time, a weekend cold shot does bring some freeze risk into the equation. So it's just another layer in a market that's already trading headlines. And conditions aren't helping the bulls case either. Ratings continue to slip across key states, reinforcing the need for moisture, but without any guarantees of it necessarily showing up in a timely fashion. So even with the near-term pressure, there are still some supportive global undertones here to wheat. EU yields are starting to slip, Australia is likely to pull back on some wheat acres just due to fertilizer, and Russia throwing restrictions around fertilizer, and it's just adding another wrinkle to production potential. So today we did see May Chicago Wheat close two and a quarter cents higher at 590, May KC wheat settled less than a penny higher at 604, and May Minneapolis finished the day at 631 and a quarter up four and a quarter cents. And Lean Hog Futures showed some technical weakness today with June futures briefly trading below their February lows. The contract settled at 104.05 down 35 cents on the day and just one tick under key support. So a confirmed close below the February lows could open the door to an additional two to three dollars downside move, at least in the near term. So we would view the break towards that 103 level if June futures there as a buying opportunity. Nearby April Hogs provided some support to the complex, finishing 25 cents higher at 9105. Attention will shift to Friday's close to determine whether the market does confirm today's technical breakdown. In the cattle complex, feeder cattle led the way higher, strengthened cash markets at regional sales barns over the past several days has certainly helped support buyer interest, pushing feeder uh feeder futures to new three-week highs intraday. However, the inability to hold those highs at the close may be mildly disappointing, at least for the bulls, and just reinforces the current sideways trade. March feeders closed$1.85 higher at$3.60.30, while May feeders gained$2.35 settling at$3.50.70. For now, the feeder market appears to be consolidating with direction likely tied to broader financial market stability, and a firmer tone in equities could lend some additional support here to the complex. Live cattle futures were mixed today. April futures uh continued to take direction from cash trade expectations and closed about 7.5 cents higher at 235.375. With roughly 30 days remaining until expiration, cash will remain the primary driver. June live cattle slipped five cents to 234.60. Again, if you have any questions, as always, feel free to reach out. Otherwise, have a great night. We'll talk to you again tomorrow.