Daily Market Cast: 3/23

Daily Commentary: Monday, March 23, 2026

Transcript

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Good afternoon, everyone. Today is Monday, March 23rd, and this is Sam with today's commentary. Overnight strength, driven by energy, flipped quickly just after 6 a.m. when headlines hit that President Trump ordered a five-day halt to strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure amid productive talks. Since then, things have settled down a bit, with feed grains mixed and soybeans trading higher. Weekend tensions were anything but quiet. Trump warned Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours or face strikes on power infrastructure. Iran responded that any attack would trigger retaliation across energy assets in the region. That tone shifted early this morning with talk of a ceasefire, but the back and forth continues to keep markets on edge. But here's what stands out grains then break, and honestly, that's a bit surprising. Think back to last Monday, similar escalation, and we were starting staring at limit down moves. Today, not even close. That tells you something. There's support under this grain market right now, whether it's positioning demand or simply a market that already flushed out weak hands last week, it's there. Volatility isn't going away, but today's reaction feels different. Looking ahead, there's plenty to keep this market moving. China meetings are still on, and any clarity there could quickly shift demand expectations. We're also watching for biofuel policy news out of the White House later this week, which could directly impact corn and soybean demand. And then next week, a big one. USDA's prospective plantings and quarterly grain stocks report. Those are the types of reports that can reset the tone in a hurry. Now on to corn, December corn pushed up to test monthly highs overnight, but lost momentum as crude oil broke sharply, dragging the market lower to start the week. That said, the bigger picture really hasn't changed. Energy is still doing the heavy lifting, tight global oil supplies tied to ongoing disruptions, keep that longer term support intact. That's not a story that gets fixed overnight, and it continues to act as a floor under new crop values. On the demand side, things are still solid, ethanol margins remain favorable, exports are holding together, and acreage ideas continue to lean lower. Adding questions around Chinese corn quality, potentially 20 to 30 million metric tons of last year's crop, and you've got another layer of uncertainty that could shift demand. Funds are still not long as well, which tells you they believe up in the trend. Technically, the market still looks constructive, even with some overbought signals creeping in. If we can push through$5 in December, that likely opens the door to another leg higher. Volatility, yes, but for now, the edge still belongs to the bulls. May corn closed six cents lower at 459.5, with December ending the day four and a half cents lower at 486.5. Soybeans kicked off the week with plenty of volatility as well. Early selling showed up as crude rolled over, but the market found its footing and finished stronger. With soybeans and soy oil closing higher across the board, still that choppy tone likely sticks around as long as we're trading headlines. The funds are still holding a sizable net long position across soybeans and meal, but soybean oil really stands out with a net long of over 122,000 contracts, the second largest position ever behind 126,500 in November of 2016. In our opinion, they have something to defend in the near term, especially as details on biofuels and China meetings are expected this week. For now, the bullets still have the edge, but they're increasingly tied to energy direction. May soybean futures gain two and a quarter cents to settle at 1163 and a half, and November futures finished at 1146.5, up five and a half cents. To week complex started the week under pressure as well, with Chicago futures slipping to a two-week low as outside markets, particularly energy, pull back, but the broader tone still leans constructive. This recent consolidation continues to look more like a pause within an uptrend rather than a finalized top. Wheat has been supported by ongoing food security concerns, and that underpinning hasn't gone away. At the same time, the hard red winter wheat crop story is gaining traction. Record heat across the plains over the weekend, combined with emerging signs of last week's freeze damage in southern areas keeps production risk in focus. Forecasts remain unfavorable with above normal temperatures expected to persist and limited precipitation near term, though late March rain changes are still being watched. Fundamentally, managed money remains modestly short in Chicago wheat, leaving room for short covering as sentiment stabilizes. Russian export estimates were raised, which tempers the bullish case slightly, and a pause in Iran-related tensions may ease some geopolitical premium. Technically, for May Minneapolis, support sets near 613 and 609, with resistance layered at 625, followed by 635. May Minneapolis futures gave back a penny to settle at 627, and May Chicago Futures closed 7.5 cents lower to settle at 587 and 34. And May uh Kansas City Futures finished at 603.25, down three cents. Now went to the livestock complex. Sunday night's commodity trade set up an uncertain tone heading into Monday's livestock open with conflicting signals across markets. While Friday's Cattle on Feed Report leaned modestly unfriendly, supportive outside market influence helped offset that sentiment early in the session. At the 8 30 a.m. open, sharply higher financial markets combined with a notable decline in crude oil provided a favorable backdrop for risk assets. Livestock markets responded accordingly, gapping higher across the board. However, those early gains proved difficult to sustain as all opening gaps were eventually filled, tempering initial bullish enthusiasm. Despite the intraday volatility, cattle markets managed to post firm closes. The session was characterized by a back and forth tone, with traders balancing supportive macro influences against ongoing fundamental headwinds. Packers continue to reduce slaughter levels, effectively backing up market ready cattle supplies. Their strategy appears to hinge on maintaining current box beef values while pressuring cash cattle prices steady to lower. While this approach may be effective in the near term, it introduces longer-term bearish implications for producers as supply builds in the pipeline. Some cattle settlements here. April live cattle gained$1.25 to close at$2.35.30. June live cattle up$1.22.5 to finish$2.34.65. March feeder cattle up$0.70 at$3.58.45. And May feeder cattle closed at$3.48.35 up$1.97.5. Lean hogs followed a similar early pattern but failed to maintain upward momentum. After a higher opening, the market faded throughout the session, ultimately closing slightly lower. April lean hogs lost 47.5 cents to close at 90.80. And June lost 7.5 cents at 104.40. The hog market remains vulnerable in the near term, but the potential for additional downside of supportive catalysts failed to materialize. Attention now turns to Thursday's hogs and pigs report, which bulls are hoping will confirm a seasonal low. Failure to deliver a supportive report could expose the market to an additional$3 of downside risk. This concludes today's commentary. We hope everyone has a good evening and we will talk to you tomorrow.