Daily Market Cast: 3/19

Daily Commentary: Thursday, March 19, 2026

Transcript

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Hey everyone, this is Allison giving you today's Daily Green Market commentary for Thursday, March 19th. And honestly, it's getting kind of exhausting, and I think we can all agree with that. But we've been having some crazy daily ranges here, starting from the beginning of the week, and it really hasn't slowed down. Daily ranges of 15 cents in wheat, 10 cents in corn, and 20 to 30 cents in beans have really become the norm, not the exception. And the driver really hasn't changed here. Crude oil and whatever unfolds in the latest 24-hour news cycle does continue to drive markets. Today's headlines were relatively quiet compared to yesterday's escalation, but Iran's response targeting regional infrastructure did help push energy markets higher. And that reinforces the risk premium we traded today. Even without escalation, nothing has been resolved and the market knows it. And right now, grains are trading that macro story more than anything else. On the monetary side, the Federal Reserve didn't offer much relief yesterday. Rate cuts are effectively on hold. If inflation remains elevated, especially with energy pushing higher, it becomes increasingly difficult for the Fed to justify aggressively easing rates. So Chair Powell acknowledged that the oil shock tied to the Middle East tensions will likely shift inflation in the near term, while also emphasizing that the broader market implications do remain uncertain. So the combination of geopolitical tensions, firm energy, and restrictive monetary policy isn't a trend environment. It's a volatile environment, and grains are definitely trading it. Weekly corn export sales were in line with trade expectations this morning. Year-to-day commitments are now up 30% from last year versus the US Day calling for a 15.5% increase. Corn is at 81% of that forecast already. That's ahead of 75% on average. Mexico, Japan, and Spain were main buyers this week. Technically, corn crossed an important threshold today, uh, trading above Monday's high and recovering all of those early week losses. And that is notable, especially with corn futures continuing to press into resistance. May futures face resistance at this month's high at 476, while December does sit at 498.5. At this point, the market needs to either break through these levels and invite more buying, or we're gonna stall out again. May corn did close near highs of the session at 469 and three quarters, up six and a half cents. December futures ended four and three quarter cents higher at 494 and a half. And soybeans found support today, but strength isn't coming from demand. It's actually coming from uncertainty. There's chatter of a Brazilian port worker strike, Argentina has been slow to post some new crop offers, and China has rejected another soybean uh cargo out of Brazil over pests. So nothing definitive, but enough to at least keep the floor under the market. Domestically, crush is also doing the heavy lifting here of the soy complex. Crush margins are running at over three-year highs, and with crush running at record pace, the USD will likely add some demand in future reports. But the mix matters. Soy oil uh product value, which is the share of the total crush revenue, actually slipped below 50%, meaning oil is no longer carrying the majority of the value. Why? Well, exports actually remain a problem here. Soybean oil exports continue to lag and are down 58% compared to last year. Soybeans were also disappointing in this morning's report at 19% below Eurogo levels. Meal, however, stands out. Commitments there are up 11% year over year. So with that, we did see the meal market, the leader of the complex today. May soybeans closed at 1168.5, up 6.3 quarter cents. November ended the day four and three quarter cents higher at 1146 and a quarter. And wheat exchanges finished higher thanks to supportive weather forecasts. Big temperature swings and expanding drought across the southern plains do continue to keep risk in the market. That said, a portion of that premium has likely been built in here. But until there's confidence and meaningful moisture, it's not coming out quickly. At the same time, the rally is also creating its own ceiling for wheat. Uh, U.S. wheat is becoming less competitive globally, and weekly exports are reflecting that shift. Weekly wheat sales were below expectations, but again, commitments do remain up 14% from last year versus the US day's expectation of only a 9% increase. So May Chicago wheat did close three and three quarter cents higher at 608. May KC ended at 627 and a quarter up one and a quarter cents, and May Minneapolis finished the day at 643 and three quarters up six and a half cents. And cattle turned lower today. Feeders uh led the move with crude pushing toward$100 and stocks staying under pressure. So that outside influence is starting to matter. There was no cash trade yet this week, but the Packers have to be feeling a little bit better after today, likely aiming to buy some cattle at least steady with last week. We do have a cattle on feed report tomorrow. Expectations are on feed will come in about 99.3%, placements at 100.3%, marketing's at 92.4%. Exports this morning were ugly. Beef sales came in at just 3,200 tons versus what we've been seeing of a 16,104-week average. So the strong dollar also isn't helping, and boxed beef did slip$1.33 to 442 at midday. Still, despite today's pullback, cattle haven't broken much technical support. So this trend is still higher, at least for now. April Live cattle uh closed$2.125 lower at$233.275. April feeder cattle finished at$347.75 down over$6 on the day. And hogs are a different story. Lean hogs opened lower and never found footing today, testing two-month lows. Export sales were below average and with higher energy and weaker equities. There's just growing concern about demand. Funds are still long, and if they start heading for the door here, this could accelerate pretty quickly. Export sales came in at 28,300 tons versus 32,000 on average. Year to date is still up 2.2%, but that isn't what the market's trading right now. April Leanhogs lost$1.70 today, finishing at$92.05. May lost$2.65, settling at$96.05. Otherwise, that's it for today. We'll obviously talk to you again tomorrow. And if you need anything, as always, feel free to reach out. Have a good night. We'll talk to you then.