Daily Market Cast: 3/18

Daily Commentary: Wednesday, March 18, 2026

Transcript

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Good afternoon, everyone. Today is Wednesday, March 18th, and this is Sam with today's commentary. Today's inflation data reinforced what markets were already beginning to price, a more persistent, higher for longer rate environment. US producer prices came in above expectations with headline PPI at 3.4% and core at 3.9%, the highest since early 2023. That keeps pressure on the Federal Reserve to stay restrictive, limiting the urgency for rate cuts, tightening financial conditions, and supporting the US dollar. Normally that would weigh on commodities, but that's not the trade right now. Instead, commodities are facing geopolitical and production risks. Energy markets continue to lead that story. Crude oil is no longer trading like a short-term spike. It is establishing a higher floor. After rallying from nearly$55 in December to a spike high near$119, prices have consolidated around$95. That consolidation signals stability under elevated risk, not weakness. Today's EIA report reinforced that tone. While crude stocks increased, gasoline and distillate inventories declined, a sign that product markets remain tight. More importantly, price direction continues to be driven less by current supply and more by the risk to supply. Disruptions tied to the Middle East, including halted gas flows from Iran's South Pars Field, the world's largest natural gas reserve, highlight just how sensitive markets remain to geopolitical development. The market is not reacting to supply, it is reacting to the risk of supply. At the same time, weather risk is beginning to build across agricultural markets. In the U.S., recent freezes across the southeast and a developing heat wave across the plains are introducing early season stress. Temperatures pushing into the 80s and 90s, even triple digits across parts of Texas, combined with a lack of meaningful moisture over the next two weeks, leaves the hard red winter wheat crop increasingly vulnerable as it exits dormancy. Put together, this is a market being pulled in two directions. Macro conditions are tightening, but geopolitical risk, energy strength, and emerging weather concerns are preventing commodities from breaking lower. That divergence will continue to shape trade in the near term, and it keeps volatility elevated across the entire egg space. Corn had an impressive session. One of the most more notable developments today was the Trump administration's announcement of a 60-day waiver of the Jones Act, allowing foreign flight vessels to transport fuel, fertilizer, and other goods between U.S. ports. In the short term, it helps ease logistical bottlenecks and input cost pressures, but more importantly, it signals an administration willing to act to keep supply chains moving. That matters for corn. Planting in the southern U.S. is expected to begin within the next 10 days, adding a seasonal shift to the trade's focus. Looking ahead, the March 31st quarterly grain stocks and planting intentions report will be key inflection points. With fertilizer and diesel costs rising, potential surprises can't be ruled out. Technically, corn is gaining much of the losses experienced in Monday's session. Sunday's night high of 466 will be the level of first resistance, followed by the 470 area. May come with that, may corn futures gain 9.25 cents to settle at 463.25. December new crop finished at 489.3 quarter up eight cents. So I mean futures are still stabilizing after Monday's sharp limit downbreak as the market works to rebuild confidence. China has announced they are comfortable with the delayed meeting as President Trump has made it clear the delay was to focus more on the US-Iran war and not necessarily an effort to pressure Beijing. The tone has shifted toward cautious consolidation, with traders acknowledging that headline risk remains elevated. While the summit delay of five to six weeks offers some near-term support, uncertainty still lingers, and the market is likely to reprice that outcome multiple times before anything is finalized. As a result, any attempt to rebuild a China premium may be uneven or headline driven. Soybean oil has provided a supportive undertone, extending its rebound on optimism surrounding the upcoming White House biofuel meeting, with the expectations for stronger RVO mandates helping underpin demand prospects. With that, may soybean futures gained four and three quarter cents to close at 1161 and three quarters. November futures end of the day at 1141 and a half, up 10 and a quarter cents. Wheat exchanges were able to recoup yesterday's losses thanks to weather and demand. Wild temperature swings across the southern plains combined with expanding drought in key hard red winter wheat regions are adding early season stress and fueling speculative buying. With limited moisture in the forecast and heat building, the crop is entering a more vulnerable stretch coming out of dormancy. On the demand side, China has re-emerged in a meaningful way. Wheat and wheat flour imports during January and February totaled 2.16 million metric tons, up more than a thousand percent from last year. That shift reinforces the idea that global buyers are becoming more active at current price levels. Despite recent volatility, we continue to show resilience relative to the Browder Grain Complex. While it's not a runaway market, the tone is quietly improving and weed is starting to build some strong support. With that, Maine Chicago futures gained 14.5 cents to finish at 604 and a quarter. Maine Kansas City futures closed at 626 up 19.25 cents. And lastly, May Minneapolis futures ended at 637 and a quarter, higher by 13 cents. On to the livestock complex, live cattle turned slightly higher into the close today with a mostly an upside day of trading, showing the market is pausing after its recent move. A test of yesterday's lows brought in buying, and with expectations building for stronger cash trade this week, it helped futures recover. Packer margins have improved, and after last week's very light trade, there's growing belief packers will need to be more aggressive. Fundamentals still insupportive. Focus now shifts to Friday's cattle on feed report with expectations near 99.3% on feed and placements at 100.3% and marketing's at 92.4%. Technically, the trend is still intact. In April, the rally from 205 to 245 continues to hold. The 38% retracement at 229.70 has been tested a few times and held. Now the market is bouncing with 235 to 236, acting as near-term resistance. Today, April Live Cattle closed at 235.40, up 17.5 cents. Feeder cattle trade is slightly lower today. Technically, 360 is a key level to watch in March feeders. A move through there opens the door to 364.82, the March 5th high. Above that, a retest of 370 is still in play. Like live cattle, this market isn't showing signs of breaking down. It's holding together and waiting for the next directional push. March feeders settled at$1.07.5 cents lower at$358.72.5. Now into hogs, April Hogs posted an inside day today showing the market is pausing after recent moves. June hogs couldn't fall through on yesterday's late rally, which takes some of the strength out of that signal, especially with lighter volume. The market remains well supplied and funds are still holding a large long position, but positioning is also rolling forward with open interest moving out of April and into June. If June breaks below 106.47, selling can pick up quickly. Technically, 92.60 is a key level to watch. If that breaks, it opens the door to 92, then 91 to Valentine's Day low. Apriline hogs closed two and a half cents higher at 93.75, with March settling at 107.52.5, down 25 cents. This concludes today's commentary. We hope everyone has a good evening and we will talk to you tomorrow.