Daily Market Cast: 3/17

Daily Commentary: Tuesday, March 17, 2026

Transcript

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Hey everyone, this is Allison giving you today's Daily Green Market commentary for Tuesday, March 17th. And we finally saw a little bit of green on the screen today, especially fitting for St. Patrick's Day. After the way the trade started the week, it was certainly a welcome change. But this wasn't necessarily a market turning higher. This is a market catching its breath. Yesterday wasn't about fundamentals, as we said, it was about positioning. And when markets get crowded and we see the confidence crack, the move doesn't ease its way lower, it really drops. Support breaks, sell stops trigger, and the trade feeds on itself. And that's exactly what we saw happen. Now today's trade feels different. It's not necessarily bullish, but it's a lot less forced. President Trump said the expected meeting with China, which was originally set for March 31st through April 2nd, is being reset and pushed back five to six weeks. So the meeting clearly matters for USOIB and demand, and there's speculation that other row crops could be included as well. So the market is still dependent on demand, and now that timeline obviously gets pushed out. So no new demand and just more waiting. But for the market, the extended timeline also creates something else, and that's optimism. Talks aren't off the table, and that matters. It keeps the possibility of demand in play, even if it is delayed. And at the same time, another piece of the story is starting to take shape here for demand in Washington. The White House is expected to host an agriculture and biofuels focused event next week as the administration works toward finalizing new biofuel blending mandates for 26 and 27. So those decisions obviously carry some good weight. And for the market, it does add another layer of uncertainty here, but also potential. Biofuel policy is really one of the few levers that can directly impact domestic demand. And right now we're seeing that come back into motion. But Corn Futures had a pretty quiet session with some light bear spreading being present. For corn, the headline today actually centered on fertilizer, as the White House did signal the U.S. could source supplies from Venezuela and Morocco to offset disruptions tied to the Persian Gulf. So it doesn't necessarily remove concern, but it does help ease some of the immediate pressures as we're heading into planting. But obviously, with both fertilizer costs and planting decisions in focus here, we are watching that corn soybean ratio pretty closely. And today it's roughly at 2.36. Again, that's near neutral, but it does slightly favor corn. So maybe we're going to start seeing some push and pull here as we go through that corn and soybean ratio and buying acres here going into the end of the month report. South America also remains supportive. Brazil's second crop planting remains behind last year's pace with soybean harvest delays slowing progress. And that timing risk matters because it could trim yield potential and even tighten their exportable supply later this summer. So that keeps the door open for U.S. export demand, which already remains pretty impressive. Technically, Macorne still coiling within its wedge, holding support near 452 with resistance around 465. Recent weakness alongside fund liquidation, declining open interest does suggest positioning resetting, more so than a trend change here. And soybeans bounced back modestly after yesterday's limit down move, but the tone still leans defensive. Bear sparting showed up with nearby contracts posting small gains while new crop actually pushed double digits higher. And that shift starts to raise questions. Are we starting to see some buying of acres? Bean oil led the complex today, supported by firmer energy and growing expectations around biofuel policy. The White House event on March 27th has a trade looking for clarity on RVOs and SRE allocations. And early guesses point to stronger mandates, which would be supportive longer term, even if it does create some pushback from refiners and big oil. Demand does continue to hold together here. We did get February NOPA crush yesterday, kind of in between all the big things that were going on, and actually it's running well ahead of the USDE pace. And that's leaving room for another upward revision in future reports. But that strength also showed up in larger bean oil stocks. So that keeps a lid on how aggressive that rally can get as well. But overall, this feels like a market stabilizing after a flush lower with focus starting to shift towards acreage and policy rather than just old crop demand. May soybeans ended the session one and three quarter cents higher at$11.57. November finished at$11.31 and a quarter, up 10.5 cents. And in a flip-flop from yesterday, we posted the largest losses on the day. And despite technical pressure, the broader tone isn't outright bearish. Some of the resilience does come from weather concerns. There has been chatter of freeze injury. And now we're actually starting to see some actual reports of damage alongside declining crop conditions in Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. So the focus now shifts to heat and limited moisture, which could add just another layer of stress to that crop. And globally, the story leans a bit supportive as well. Russian export prices are firming and Ukrainian shipments do remain slow, and US export demand does continue to run ahead of last year. So technically momentum has cooled, but the short-term trend does remain constructive. And with weather and geopolitical rest still in play here, breaks are likely to find some buyers, keeping the near-term edge here with the bulls. So May Chicago, we did close 7.5 cents lower at 589 and 3 quarters. May KC ended at 606 and 3 quarters down 9 and 3 quarters. And May Minneapolis settled 9 and 3 quarter cents lower at 624 and a quarter. And the cattle market finished the day higher for the second consecutive session. It may sound repetitive, but the supply side of the equation remains bullish and it is expected to stay that way for the foreseeable future. Friday's cattle on feed report should once again come in friendly as overall numbers are not increasing. There is potential for slightly heavier weights on feed as packers have been slowing kills, and the ongoing strike with JBS plant could be backing up some market ready, backing up some market ready cattle. Ultimately, price reduction will continue to be driven by demand. If consumers remain engaged and do not back away from beef, cash prices should be able to hold in the 230s, 240 range for an extended period. April live cattle gained over a dollar, almost two, a dollar point nine seven five, closing at 235.225. March feeders finished at 359.80 up$4.35. Lean hogs closed in the green, breaking the 60 streak of lower prices. While the decline hasn't been severe, the steady daily losses are beginning to add up. And seasonally, hogs do tend to go lower into April. So this type of price action is not out of the ordinary. April hogs gained 22.5 cents today, settling at 93.725. Historically, lean hogs often again make moves of around$10, which would project June hogs down toward about$101.40. Chart support is seen at$104.50, the February low. June hogs closed at$107.775, up 52.5 cents on the day. So again, if you have any questions, feel free to reach out. Otherwise, have a great night. We'll talk to you again tomorrow.