Daily Market Cast: 3/16

Daily Commentary: Monday, March 16, 2026

Transcript

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Good afternoon everyone. Today is Monday, March 16th, and this is Sam with today's commentary. Everyone woke up this morning to what felt like the sky falling in greens, with the soybean complex leading the move lower. The pressure wasn't coming from traditional supply and demand stories, but from a shift in the geopolitical narrative tied to China and the Strait of Hormuz. Over the weekend, reports surfaced that President Trump is considering delaying his plans somewhat with Chinese President Z after Beijing had not responded to a US request that China help secure shipping lanes through the Strait of Hermuz. For gray markets, that immediately raises questions around the timing of any potential US-China trade discussions, which tends to hit soybeans first given their dependence on Chinese demand. Then uncertainty sparked selling across the soy complex and spilled into the rest of the gray markets as funds reacted to the headline. In short, the market quickly moved to price in the possibility that US-China negotiations and any agricultural discussions tied to them could take longer to materialize. Adding another layer this morning, the White House said President Trump is speaking with European allies and other countries in the region about reopening shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormous. As those discussions developed, oil prices actually moved lower during the session, suggesting the market is beginning to price in the possibility that energy flows could stabilize rather than escalate. In our opinion, both stories lean more toward posturing than structural change. Trade negotiations between the US and China rarely move in a straight line, and geopolitical headlines often create short-term volatility before markets recalibrate. The same may apply to the energy situation, depending on if oil flows actually materialize. If that proves to be the case, the sharp reaction today may ultimately look more like a headline-driven shakeout than a fundamental shift, and potentially a buying opportunity if tensions, ease, and discussions move forward again. Onto corn, corn futures face pressure today as weakness in soybeans and softer energy prices weighed on sentiment following President Trump's comments yesterday. The headline also spilled into corn after after reports that US and Chinese officials recently discussed the possibility of increased Chinese imports of non-soy grow crops. Positioning likely played a role in today's move as well. The latest CFTC data showed managed money adding more than 140,000 contracts last week, pushing the net log to just under 200,000 contracts, the largest in about a year. That position has likely shifted somewhat after today's session. Funds have increasingly viewed corn as a relative inexpensive lawn compared to wheat and soybeans, which left the market vulnerable to some profit taking when broader markets turned lower. Technically, Maycorn managed to hold an important support area in year 447, which lines up closely with both the 100 and 200 day moving averages. Holding that level helped stabilize the market during today's session and kept the broader charge structure intact for now. Looking ahead, weather would soon start to take center stage. Forecasts calling for a warmer and drier pattern across parts of the corn belt over the next two weeks could quickly bring planting additions into the conversation. Because of that, traders appear reluctant to completely step away from their positions this close to the start of the growing season. May corn finished the day 13.4. December ended at 480, down 11.5 cents. The soybean complex faced heavy pressure during today's session, with May futures settling down the 770 cent daily limit at 11.55. The selling was initially sparked by the geopolitical headlines discussed earlier, but once the market began to track key technical levels, the move accelerated as traders reacted to the shift in momentum. From a technical perspective, today's break pushed the market through the 10, 20, and 30 day moving averages and also took out the 38.2% retracement of the rally from 1051, 1238, which came in near 1165 to 1167. Once that level failed to hold, selling pressure increased and the market moved quickly toward the daily limit. Despite the sharp decline, the move came after nearly two months of steady gains with very little corrective pullback, meaning several key support levels were sitting well below Friday's close. With today's move, attention now shifts to the next technical zones. The 50% retracement of the rally comes in near 1145, followed by the 50 and 100 day moving averages near the 1120 area. In other words, today marked the first meaningful technical correction of the rally, and the market will likely take its hues from how prices behave around the next support levels in the days ahead. May and July soy means settle the day limit lower with losses of 70 cents. Tomorrow there will be expanded limits of$1.05. Today may close at$11.55 and a quarter, July at$11.67 and a half. November end of the day at$11.20 and three quarter, down 40 and 3 quarter cents. The wheat complex is lower to start the week after early overnight weakness tied to headlines about a possible delay in the early April US China summit. Wheat futures are holding on better compared to corn and soyme futures, with Kansas City leading the move as weather concerns continue to build across the plains. Kansas City Week continues to show the strongest chart structure, largely due to the growing stress on the hard red wind wheat crop. A hard freeze is expected early this week across parts of the plains, followed by a rapid warm-up later in the week with temperatures in the southern plains pushing into the 90s. With precipitation expected to remain below normal, traders could add a weather premium to Kansas City futures. Drought remains another supportive factor with more than half of U.S. wheat areas currently under drought, roughly double the coverage seen at this time last year. Dryness is also expanding across parts of the Black Sea and Europe. Technically, for the Minneapolis May contract, resistance sits near 647 to 652, while support is seen around 631 with a deeper level near 619. Today May Minneapolis settled 11.5 cents lower at 634. May Chicago futures lost 16.5 cents to finish at 597 and then a quarter. And finally, May Kansas City futures lost 13.5 cents to close at 616 and a half. On to the livestock. The cattle market shrugged off the news of the strike at the JBS plant in Greeley, Colorado today. It appears that traders sold the rumor last week, and once the event actually happened, the market responded in the opposite direction. Roughly 3,800 employees walked out this morning, yet both live cattle and feeder cattle contracts finished a day higher. The strike itself may not have been the only factor influencing the rally. The outside markets were supportive, with the financial market sharply and crude oil posting a sizable decline. When the broader financial market stabilize, it often improves overall market sentiment, and that likely helped support the cattle complex to date. The closure of the Greeley facility had been widely anticipated by the trade, so today's development did not come as a shock. JABS has already begun moving cattle to other plants within their system in preparation for the strike. If Packer margins had been strongly positive, the situation may have been handled differently, but the Packers have been dealing with red ink for some time now. There are also rumors circulating within the trade that the Greeley plant needed significant repairs or upgrades, and that the shutdown could provide an opportunity to complete some of that work while operations are halted. One of the more important developments to watch is a slower pace of daily slaughter levels. Reduced slaughter numbers are tightening near-term beef supplies, which has been pushing box beef prices higher. That in turn is helping reduce the losses the Packers have been experiencing. That dynamic could continue for a period of time as long as beef demand remains strong. Eventually, the consumer may begin to push back against the near record retail brass beef prices, but at this point there has been little evidence of that happening. April live cattle were up$2.35, closing at$2.33.25, and June were up$2.92.5, closing at$2.31.87.5. March feeders were up$5.97.5, closing at$3.55.45, and May was up$6.37.5, closing at$3.45.55. In the lean hog market, trade is generally quieter. The market has been in an uptrend recently and prices remain near resistance levels close to the yearly highs. Demand for pork has been solid and continues to provide underlying support. The funds are currently holding a sizable net long position in hogs, showing that speculative money is leaning toward the bullish side of the market. Lean hogs were one of the quietest markets today. Trading rangers stayed within a dollar and the closes were mixed. There wasn't any news to drive the market either way today. Friday's commitment of traders report that longs increased their positions to 127,000. That is still 20,000 below last year's record long position. The hogs and pig report is 10 days away, so traders will soon start to position themselves before the release of that report. The preliminary calls are for smaller slaughter levels coming out of the market this summer. April hogs are up a nickel, closing at 9350, and June is off 12 and a half cents, closing at 107.25. For now, the livestock markets remain sensitive to outside financial markets, energy prices, and ongoing geopolitical developments. Volatility in those areas could continue to influence short term price direction across the cattle and hog complexes. This concludes today's commentary. We hope everyone has a good evening, and we'll talk to you tomorrow.