Daily Market Cast: 3/13

Daily Commentary: Friday, March 13, 2026

Transcript

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Hey everyone, this is Allison giving you today's City Green Market commentary for Friday, March 13th. And green markets continue to trade on the whims of crude oil and whatever geopolitical headline crosses the screen next. And when energy moves, funds do tend to drag commodities along with it, and grains have clearly been riding that current this week. Overnight, um, as crude backed off, grains followed lower here to start the session, but as the day progressed, traders began positioning ahead of another weekend, and we saw risk on mode creep back in, and that helped stabilize grain markets to finish the week. The bigger question though, hanging over this market is how far crude might go if geopolitical tensions continue to escalate. Are the robots gonna be bound and determined to push crude back towards$146? And that's the spike from the 2008 crisis. Well, honestly, we have no idea. But when the algorithms get rolling, and that's kind of what this market feels like right now, anything is possible. So the next major upside target sits near 130. That's a high from 2022. Beyond that, 146 is from the two 2008. That becomes the next historical marker that we could see the market gravitate towards. But again, it just depends what kind of unfolds in the Gulf here over the next couple of weeks. But the good news for producers is that the volatility has created some opportunities here to get caught up on sales. So if you haven't yet, this is your window. And as of right now, we are recommending producers to be 20 to 25% sold for 2026 corn, soybeans, spring wheat, and canola. Corn futures did finish the week a bit mixed, but honestly better than they were a lot of the session. And we saw bull spreading being a dominant theme today. The market continues to balance support from outside markets, especially energy, with the reality of tight farm margins. And that one notable dynamic that's obviously growing some disconnect here is between fertilizer companies and the farm economy. And shares of major nitrogen producers have surged, and it's just highlighting strong margins for suppliers, while many growers continue to deal with elevated input costs. So even with new crop corn closing the week back above 490, it hasn't provided margin relief enough for many producers after spending several years here with some high expenses. And we're also seeing rise in gasoline and diesel prices. Um and that's helping bring inflation concerns back to the conference conversation, and that can pull some money flow in as well. But how long all of this actually lasts in supporting corn depends on how long the the rally in energy really lasts. So we did see May corn futures close the week at 467 and a quarter, four and three quarter cents higher, and six and a half cents higher for the week. December settled one and a half cents higher today at 491.5, up seven cents for the week. And again, crude oil is grabbing headlines, but underneath the surface, there actually are a few developments quietly supporting the soybean market. Brazilian trade groups are raising concerns about tightening soybean inspections on shipments headed to China, which actually could slow exports from the world's largest exporter. And that timing is far from ideal for China. Their January-February soybean imports just hit a seven-year low, and now Chinese soybean meal futures have pushed two contract highs, and that's just reflecting some tightening of some feed supply and obviously concerns around that. And at the same time, Brazil's supply outlook does continue to edge slightly lower. And again, while those adjustments are small, it does reinforce that production expectations are not growing. We also have trade policy. Um, that's going to be creeping back into the conversation here next week. Negotiators are scheduled to meet here this weekend to lay out some framework between the US and China for a meeting later this month. And of course, any shift in that relationship has the ability to quickly influence soybean demand. So taken together, these developments help explain why soybeans have been able to push higher even while outside markets dominate the headlines. If export flows tighten out of Brazil while meal demand remains firm, it gives the soybean complex a fundamental story to support a decent rally further. May soybeans did lose two cents in today's session, closing at 12.25 and a quarter, 23 cents higher for the week. November closed at 11.61.5, down six cents, but still up 13 and a quarter cents for the week. And wheat is starting to look increasingly undervalued compared to the broader commodity complex. The wheat to crude ratio has fallen to some of the lowest levels in years. And historically, relationships that stretch don't usually stay that way for long. So you can see a similar story when comparing wheat to the recent rally in metals. When spreads get this extreme, markets often rebalance. And if a broader agricultural rally develops, wheat could end up being one of the strong, stronger catch-up markets. And part of that argument comes down to demand. We carry some of the most inelastic demand among major commodities since global food consumption remains relatively stable, regardless of economic conditions. And that tends to give the market a firm underlying floor when supply concerns appear. Weather is also starting to draw some attention across the plains. Temperatures are expected to drop into the teens in parts of West Texas and Oklahoma this weekend, following highs in the 80s and 90s just earlier this week. So while permanent damage isn't expected, that kind of rapid shift can shock crops and add stress, especially with ongoing dryness and areas dealing with blowing dirt as well. So May Chicago we did close 15 and a quarter cents higher today at 613 and three quarters, three cents lower for the week. May KC closed at 630, 16.5 cents higher today, but down six and a half cents for the week. May Minneapolis ended the week at 645.5, 11 cents higher, and two cents higher on the week. And the livestock markets did not have a good week. All contracts were lower on the week, although it was not a collapse necessarily in price. Weekly support is now being challenged though across cattle contracts. Prices struggled throughout the week due to rising gas prices, weaker financial markets, and a stronger US dollar. Retail beef prices are near record highs, and the strategy the Packers are using will likely continue to push retail prices even higher. It's difficult to say what a prolonged war could do to livestock markets, but if packers continue to kite kills and push box beef prices higher, the consumer will eventually begin to back off. Lean hogs close a week at their lows. This appears to be driven more by seasonal tendencies than necessarily outside markets, although it is never, you know, possible to know for certain. But um the bears have full control moving into next week. June hogs did close below daily support on the chart today, but yet the weekly support is still a few dollars below the market. So we can't rule out um that this could be a market that will go into a sideways pattern here. April live cattle did fall 35 cents, closing at 230.90 for the week. March feeders gained$1.25 closing at$349.475. And April lean hogs settled 90 cents lower at 93.45. Again, if you have any questions or need anything, feel free to reach out. Otherwise, have a great weekend. We'll talk to you again next week.