Daily Market Cast: 3/12

Daily Commentary: Thursday, March 12, 2026

Transcript

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Good afternoon, everyone. Today is Thursday, March 12th, and this is Sam with today's commentary. So it means let the grand complex higher today as renewed trade optimism drew speculative buying back into the market. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bazent and USTR Greer are scheduled to meet with Chinese trade officials in Paris this weekend ahead of the planned meeting between President Trump and Z later this month in Beijing. The market is beginning to price in the possibility that the talks could reopen the door to additional Chinese soybean purchases. That optimism is notable given the current price structure. U.S. Gulf Fob soybeans offers are running roughly$1.30 per bushel above Brazilian supplies, a spread that would normally push demand towards South America. However, reports that Cargill has paused Brazilian soybean shipments to China due to changes in inspection procedures have introduced uncertainty into the nearby supply flows. From a balance sheet perspective, U.S. soybean ending stocks near 350 million bushels still lean bearish relative to current prices, but it would not take a dramatic shift in demand to tighten that balance sheet. If Chinese buying were to pull stocks closer to 300 million bushels, the tone of the market changes quickly, which has helped attract speculative interest. At the same time, crude oil continues to drive the broader volatility across the grain markets. Corn soybeans and wheat have been trading almost in step with energy as funds rapidly reposition. Crude's recent swings from the 119 to 76 and back above 95 highlight just how unstable the energy market has become. As long as crude remains volatile, grains are likely to stay highly sensitive to movements in the broader commodity complex. Now onto corn, underneath the macro noise, export demand remains a sportive feature of the corn market. This week's expert sales report shows corn commitments running 32% ahead of last year's pace, well above the USDA's current forecast, calling for a 15.5% increase in exports for the marketing year. The market is also beginning to keep a closer eye on South America. Brazil's Safrina corn planting is estimated at 76% complete, trailing the 83% historical average ahead of tomorrow's Condab update. Planting delays alone do not guarantee production problems, but they do compress the growing window, meaning weather during the crop's early development period will be watched closely in the weeks ahead. Technically, the market is also navigating contract expiration with March futures going off the board tomorrow. Attention will shift fully to the May contract. That transition can occasionally shift nearby chart signals as the front month rotation works through the continuation charts. As of today, the risk is a retest of the 450 level. As long as that holds, the uptrend remains intact. May corn futures gained two and a quarter cents to finish the day at 462.5. December futures settle at 490, up a penny. Soybeans moved higher today, even though the weekly export sales report offered limited fresh fundamental support. Year-to-date export commitments are currently running 19% below last year compared to the USDA forecast calling for exports to decline 16%. Within the soybean complex, demand trends remained mixed. Soybean meal demand continues to stand out with year-to-date commitments running 11% above last year, well ahead of the USDA's forecast calling for 5% growth. Soybean oil tells the opposite story with commitments now 57% below last year. In that market, domestic demand continues to be the primary driver. Despite the softer export tone, the soybean complex still moved higher, underscoring the growing influence of outside markets. Crude oil volatility has been driving speculative positioning across commodities this week, and soybeans have been trading largely in step with those broader flows. Rising energy prices tend to support vegetable oil values through their role in renewable diesel and biofuel markets, which can lift the entire soybean complex even when near-term fundamentals appear mixed. May soybean futures gained 13.25 cents to close at 12.27 and a quarter. November futures saw gains of four and a quarter to settle at 11.67.5. The wheat complex finds itself trading higher again in today's session as risk on tone across the general commodities space remains the dominant theme. Export sales were also announced this morning and continue to provide a supportive undertone to the complex. Weekly sales totaled roughly 17 million bushels, coming in above trade expectations and pushing year-to-day commitments to about 864 million bushels. That places total commitments 12% ahead of last year's pace compared with the USDA's forecast, calling for just a 9% increase. Commitments now represent about 96% of the government's projected export total, running comfortably ahead of the historical average of 92%. Overall, export pace reinforces that demand has remained steady, even with ample global supplies. Elsewhere, crop conditions and global competition remain in the background. Kansas ratings slipped at just 56% good to excellent as dryness persists across the southern plains, while Russia continues to move sizable export volumes and redirect shipments toward Iran through the Caspian region. Technically, the wheat complex is closing in on the Sunday overnight highs as the short-term path leans higher while geopolitical risks linger, but with funds roughly flat and global supplies comfortable, wheat could quickly lose support once outside market tension fades. With that, May Chicago wheat settled three and three quarter cents higher at 598.5. May Kansas City wheat was unchanged at 613.5, and May Minneapolis lost 3.5 cents to finish at 634.5. On to the livestock complex, with higher gas prices, the financial markets trending lower and the dollar trending higher, all this is weighing on the livestock markets. Traders are concerned that demand could suffer because of these factors. The cattle complex did gap lower this morning, but the bulls are defending some weekly chart support, which allowed the market to trade higher during the day. The JBS strike is still looming over the market, but some believe the president could step in and use the Defense Production Act to stop the strike. Presidents have done this before, so it wouldn't be an unusual move. Under normal conditions, that could be supportive to the cash market. The supply fundamentals, however, have not changed and are not expected to change in the foreseeable future. This continues to be the underlying support for the market. There was also some chatter about the border reopening, but that may be all it is for now. It is still getting that time of year when flies can move further north, which always brings a seasonal discussion about the new screw we're moving north. March feeders were off 50 cents, closing at 348.22 and a half, and May feeders were up a dime, closing at 339.92.5. April cattle were up$1.10, closing at$231.25. June we're up$1.30, closing at$229.37.5. Lean hogs are continuing the trend that started on Monday of opening the market with a gap either higher or lower. Today the market gap lower, and the bulls were unable to close that gap during the session. This now leaves two gaps above the market. We believe those gaps will likely get filled rather sooner rather than later. However, it does appear that the seasonal downdraft has started. Lean hogs were all lower with small losses. April is off 85 cents, closing at 94.35, and June was off$1.7.5, closing at 108.17.5. This concludes today's commentary. We hope everyone has a great evening, and we will talk to you tomorrow.