Daily Market Cast: 3/11

Daily Commentary: Wednesday, March 11, 2026

Transcript

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Good afternoon. Today is Wednesday, March 11th, and this is Sam with today's commentary. Gray markets are firmer today as corn, soybeans, and wheat recover from yesterday's round of profit taking that briefly weighed on the complex. The tone today suggests buyers are willing to step back in after the pullback. Attention, however, continues to be drawn to the outside markets, particularly energy. Crude oil has once again become a major driver of sentiment across commodities. Yesterday's session saw sharp losses in crude after reports surfaced that the US would begin escorting vessels through the Strait of Hermuz in an effort to stabilize shipping through the region. Those reports were later discredited, allowing crude to recover off the lows, but still below$90 a barrel. The geopolitical situation remains fluid, and this morning the rhetoric appears to be escalating. Iran is now indicating it could deploy naval mines in the strait and further restrict ship movement through one of the world's most critical energy corridors. Any disruption to shipping through the region would have a significant implication for global energy flows, which is quickly being reflected in renewed risk premium entering the crude market. That rebound in energy is spilling over into the broader commodity space early today, providing a supportive backdrop for grains. While the fundamental grain story itself has not materially changed overnight, stronger outside markets and a return of geopolitical risk are helping stabilize prices after yesterday's shakeout. For now, grain traders appear content to follow the broader commodity tone. If energy markets continue to firm and geopolitical tensions remain elevated, that outside influence could continue providing short-term support to the grain complex as the session develops. Corn futures are modestly higher as the market works to recover alongside broader commodities. Early support is largely linked to energy with crude stabilizing. After yesterday's pullback, found support near key moving averages, easing some of the downside pressures seen earlier in the week. If energy remains steady, corn may test Sunday night's highs. An outside factor to watch is Mexico, where farmers are protesting low prices. The government is considering prioritizing domestic corn over imports. Since Mexico is the largest buyer of U.S. corn, any policy shifts could eventually influence the market. May corn futures gain eight cents to close at 460 and a quarter. December futures finished the day at 489, up nine and a quarter cents. Soybean futures are carrying momentum from yesterday as the market shrugged off selling pressure. Bean oil is sharply higher, helping support futures and giving short-term bulls an extra lift. Technically, soybeans are benefiting from late day rebounds that soften the impact of the recent drop from Sunday night's highs. Pullbacks over the past six weeks have generally been brief, with buyers returning quickly. External developments are also noteworthy. A fire at Cargill's Wichita plant temporarily halted domestic operations, while biodiesel policy updates in Brazil and Indonesia could support longer-term vegetable oil demand. Overall meat oil strength and steady crush demand suggest the market's near-term path remains upward. May soybean futures settled 12.25 cents higher at 1214. November futures finished at 11.63. Up 9.3 quarter cents. Wheat complex fall and renewed risk premium as geopolitical tensions turned out not to be as cool as the market once thought yesterday. Strong export demand has underpinned futures along with short covering fueling the recent rally. Taiwan tendered for 105,000 tons of U.S. milling wheat for May June shipment. South Korea bought another 32,000 tons for July, and Algeria issued a small tender near 291 per ton for April through June delivery. Meanwhile, Russia's exports remain strong, with Sovieton estimating February shipments at 2.9 millimetric tons, which is well above last year. Brazil's wheat crop was cut sharply to 6.85 millimetric tons due to reduced planted area, tightening global supply. Technically, Chicago wheat is stabilizing after falling nearly 60 cents from Sunday night's highs. Buyers have turned dips into opportunities, and overnight energy gains are helping lift the market back toward prior levels. Weather conditions are mixed, beneficial rains and parts of the southern plains are offset by forecasts for drier stretches, while Brazil's reduced crop and India's record harvest continue to influence the global balance sheet. Overall, wheat is supported by active export interest, supply adjustments, and technical buying, keeping the market on firmer footing. May Chicago wheat futures gained 3.3 quarter cents to close at 594 and three quarters. May Kansas City wheat closed at 613 and a half, up four and three quarter cents, and May Minneapolis futures settled three cents higher at 638. Onto the livestock, the cattle market is attempting to digest the potential impact of a looming labor strike by workers at the JBS processing plant in Greeley, Colorado. The plant's previous labor contract expired last July, and negotiations between the company and union representatives have been ongoing since then. However, talks broke down earlier this week, and workers are now planning to begin a strike at 5 30 a.m. on Monday, March 16th. Union members had already signaled their frustration earlier this year, voting 99% in favor of a strike authorization back in February. Their concerns center on wage levels, increasing health care costs, and the requirement for workers to pay for some of their own protective equipment. The union argues that JBS's latest wage proposal, an increase of 60 cents per hour in the first year, followed by 30 cents in subsequent years, falls far short of what workers believe is appropriate, especially given record high beef prices and strong industry profits. They have also accused the company of using tactics such as intimidation and regressive bargaining during negotiations. JBS disputes those claims and maintains that its proposal is fair and consistent with national agreements reached last year across the industry. Company representatives have suggested that the union walked away from negotiations before workers had the opportunity to vote on the offer. Currently, wages at the Greeley facility range from approximately$22 to$29 per hour depending on the job position. For perspective, starting wages at fast food chains such as McDonald's typically range between$11 and$17 per hour depending on location. At the moment, there have been no signs of a last-minute breakthrough in negotiations in preparation for a possible shutdown. JBS has already begun redirecting some cattle to other processing facilities, including plants in Texas, in an effort to maintain operations. If the strike proceeds as planned, it could temporarily disrupt beef supplies and place upward pressure on prices in the short term. The Greeley facilities processes roughly 5,400 head of cattle per day, making it one of the largest beefpacking plants in the United States. Any interruption on that scale would likely reduce total daily slaughter numbers, at least temporarily, which could lead to a backing backlog of market ready cattle. At the same time, tighter processing capacity tends to push box beef prices higher. Whether the situation ultimately becomes a prolonged disruption or is resolved quickly remains to be seen. But the market will be closely watching developments as Monday approaches. We continue to encourage using insurance or put options to protect against a major drop in prices. We don't expect a collapse in prices, but markets have a tendency to move to extremes, and there is always a possibility that last fall's low could be tested. April life cattle were down$2.25.5, closing at$2.30.15. There were some cash sales in Iowa at$235, which is$5 lower than a week ago. With the cash market heading lower, this does not support the futures contracts. Look for a retest of this week's lows by Friday's close. Feeder cattle were also lower, closing with moderate triple digit losses. March feeders were down$4.62.5, closing at$348.72.5. May feeders were off$6.57.5, closing at$3.30.82.5. Some of the feeder contracts did print a new low for the week, and May feeders printed a new yearly low today. The bears currently have control of this market. Lean hogs have had a habit of opening the week by gapping either higher or lower. Today the market gapped lower and was never able to muster much of a rally. However, today's action did stay inside this week's range, which is somewhat supportive. Monday's lows need to hold to keep prices from falling further. April hogs were down 87 and a half cents, closing at 95.20, while June was off$1.40, closing at$109.25. This concludes today's commentary. We hope everyone has a good evening and we will talk to you tomorrow.