Daily Market Cast: 3/10

Daily Commentary: Tuesday, March 10, 2026

Transcript

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Good afternoon, everyone. Today is Tuesday, March 10th, and this is Sam with today's commentary. Crane futures were broadly weaker today as outside markets continue to steer sentiment. Energy markets are leading the pressure after crude oil sold off sharply overnight, falling nearly$8 as geopolitical tensions appear to ease. President Trump suggested the conflict with Iran may be nearing completion ahead of schedule, reducing fears of prolonged disruption in the Middle East. Additional pressure on crude comes from reports the U.S. could release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and potentially ease some sanctions on Russian exports. Crude has now dropped roughly$30 from Sunday night's spike, pulling the broader energy complex lower. The Marzwidi report itself offered little in the way of major surprises. USDA left U.S. corn, soybeans, and wheat balance sheets largely unchanged from last month. The only adjustment came in soybeans, where the 2025-26 crush estimate increased 5 million bushels to 2.57 billion, offset by a similar increase in imports. Average wheat price projections were raised 5 cents to 495 per bushel. Overall, the report confirmed expectations that March would be a relatively quiet update. With few changes from USDA, market attention quickly shifts back to upcoming data and macro influences. Traders are already looking ahead to the March 31st quarterly stocks and prospective plantings report, which are expected to carry far more market impact. Early discussion suggests U.S. corn acreage could fall short of prior expectations as fertilizer costs continue to surge. Irea prices have climbed above 675 per ton and may rise further heading into the planting season, raising concerns about both affordability and availability. Globally, South American weather has improved, aiding harvest progress, and Brazil's corn planting pace, though parts of Argentina still require additional rainfall to finish crops. In China, trade data showed strong overall export and import growth early in the year. The soybean imports remain relatively weak, totaling 12.55 million metric tons for January and February, which is down nearly 8% from last year and below the five-year average. With the USDA report offering minimal adjustments, markets are likely to remain sensitive to outside market swings, energy prices, and evolving geopolitical headlines as traders position ahead of the end-of-month anchorage and stocks data. Corn futures are pulling back toward support after yesterday's reversal, with May testing the 200-day moving average near 447 and December holding uptrend support around 469. The sharp crude sell-off limited gains and energies remain weaker, though demand continues to provide a floor. Daily trading volume was the second highest in the past year, and speculators may look to reenter longs on minor weakness with December corn at 470 or below a potential entry point. Today's WASDI report showed US ending stocks unchanged at 2.136 billion bushels, world stocks steady, and Brazil corn up slightly. Year-to-date export inspections are 41.5% above last year with cumulative shipments reaching 50.7% of USCA's 25-26 forecast. Brazil Sabrino planting is at 82% complete, which compares to 92% last year, and first crop harvest sits at 42%. Technically, May corn shows a bearish technical action with downside support near 436 and resistance at 465 and 482. December corn support sits at 468 and resistance lies at 490 to 503. The market remains supported by strong exports and energy links, though short-term momentum is mixed, leaving price action vulnerable to near-term swings. May corn futures settled at 452 and a quarter down 1.5 cents. December futures finished two cents lower at 479 and 34. Now onto the soybeans, yesterday's spike highs in May, soybeans and bean oil, the highest volume since mid-June, suggests the current rally may have peaked. The reversal lower points to a potential downside of correction, with the rebound above 1205 likely to attract selling from aggressive speculators. This morning the market opened mixed amid lingering energy weakness and following USDA's mark supply and demand report, which left U.S. ending stocks unchanged from February's$350 million. World stocks were reduced slightly due to a reduction in Brazil's northern crop due to yield and quality concerns. Weekly U.S. export inspections topped estimates, but year-to-date shipments remained 29.6 below last year. Technically speaking, May soybeans have support near 1164 with resistance at 1216, followed by 1240. The USDA report underscores persistent global competition and abundant South American supplies, while strength in soybean oil has supported the complex. Unless weather or geopolitical issues re-emerge, yesterday's high could mark a near-term top. May soybean futures gained 5.5 cents to close at 1201 and 34. November futures also gained 5.25 cents to finish at 1153 and a half. Wheat futures pulled back after yesterday's spike, which reflected the extraction of wartime premium amid Middle East tensions. Chicago May soft red winter wheat found support in your 575, while rallies toward yesterday's highs phased resistance at 620 and above. The reversal came on heavy volume, the highest since mid-June, indicating technical selling could accelerate if prices failed to recover quickly. Today's March USDA WASDI report offered a largely neutral update from 2024, 25, 26 wheat. U.S. ending stocks held steady at 931 million bushels on change from February, with exports, domestic use, and production left intact. Real ending stocks were similarly unchanged, remaining the largest in five years. The report offered little little direct market moving news, with volatility instead driven by geopolitical and weather concerns, including drought in the southern plains and limited snow cover. Weekly export inspections were strong, up 20.2% year over year supporting underlying demand. Technically, May hard-red spring wheat shows support in year 628 to 624 and resistance around 640 and followed by 648. The market balances U.S. crop risk and export resilience against ample domestic and global supplies. Traders are now focused on late March grain stocks, upcoming anchorage reports, and ongoing geopolitical developments for direction. With that, May Chicago wheat lost 12 and a quarter cents to close at 591. May Kansas City futures also gave back 11 cents to settle at 6.08 and 3 quarter. And May Minneapolis futures finished the day at 635, down 11 cents. On to the livestock complex. Livestock futures rebounded today following the recent sell-off with price action producing a technical signal that traders are watching closely. Over the past two sessions, the charts have formed what technicians call a one-bar island reversal to the upside. While this pattern can indicate a short-term shift in momentum, it will be surprising if the gap created today remains open. In most cases, the market eventually comes back to backfill that gap before determining its next directional move. For now, yesterday's lows become a critical support level across the cattle and feeder cattle charts. If those levels hold, the market could stabilize. If they fail, the recent downward momentum could quickly reappear. From a fundamental standpoint, the overall supply picture in cattle has not changed. Market ready cattle and feeder cattle supplies remain tight, which has been the backbone of the bullish argument in the longer term. However, packers have exerted influence over short-term price direction by cutting slaughter levels and effectively tightening near-term beef availability. This reduction in daily kills have helped push boxed beef values higher, shifting some leverage back toward the packers despite their narrow margins. A key short-term factor hanging over the market is the potential labor strike at a major processing facility in Nebraska. If that plant were to shut down due to a strike, daily slaughter capacity would decline further. In the near term, that scenario could benefit packers by forcing boxed beef prices higher through tighter supply. The next step in that chain will depend on retailers. Higher wholesale beef values would likely translate into increased retail prices, and the critical question becomes whether consumers are willing to absorb those higher costs. Consumer resistance to rising beef prices would eventually feed back into the futures market and influence price direction. April cattle were up 222 and a half, closing at 232.37.5, and March feeders were up 270, closing at 353.35. Lean hog futures also displayed an island reversal higher on the charts today, but the durability of that signal remains questionable. The expectation is that the gap may be closed before the end of the week, which would effectively negate the bullish technical formation. If the gap does remain open, however, it could provide the technical foundation for a stronger rally. Seasonal Neehawk slaughter levels typically increase as the market moves toward April contract expiration. That seasonal rise in production generally applies pressure to prices, suggesting that the next month could see a tendency toward a weaker trade. The confirmation of that outlook will come from daily slaughter numbers and whether production expands as expected. Demand for pork remains solid, but at this stage it does not appear strong enough to sustain a sustained bullish push. Given the current balance sheet between supply expansion and steady demand, the hog market may be entering a period of sideways consolidation rather than a clear directional trend. April hogs are up$1.25, closing at 96.7.5. This concludes today's commentary. We hope everyone has a good evening and we'll talk to you tomorrow.