Daily Market Cast: 3/9

Daily Commentary: Monday, March 9, 2026

Transcript

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Good afternoon, everyone. Today is Monday, March 9th. What a wild day to start the week. Today's session opened with sharp gains across the grain complex, though much of that early strength eased. Wheat leads to pullback roughly 20 cents off of the overnight highs as energy-driven flows set the tone. Oil surge more than$12 overnight, briefly topping$100 per barrel before easing back. Some economics warn a$200 scenario could ripple across the US economy and global markets. For now, the White House maintains this is short term, though markets are clearly pricing geopolitical risk. Macro headlines extend beyond energy. Last week's February labor report showed higher than expected layoffs, and analysts noted AI-driven workforce changes could accelerate job losses, adding another layer of uncertainty for risk-sensitive markets. With that, financial markets remain jittery, the Dow closed at its lowest level since December 1st. South America remains in focus. Brazil's Soprino planting is slowed by persistent rain while Argentina faces crop stress as harvest begins. Markets will soon shift from projections to actual yields, influencing the global grain balance. Domestically rising processing margins are giving cash market support, and farmer movement is picking up ahead of U.S. planting. A welcome sign after a slow start. Geopolitics remained tense. Iran claims that they can sustain attacks on Western interests for six months. The US reported a seventh military fatality while Lebanese Hezbollah losses from recent Israeli strikes approached 400. Iran named Mo I can't pronounce this Motabi Kamini, the son of the late Supreme Leader, as the new Supreme Leader, signaling a preference for stability over experimentation. In China, February CPI jumped 1.3% year over year, the fastest rise in three years and well above the 0.8% estimate. Lunar New Year spending lifted prices of food, services, and consumer goods. Month over month, CPI rose 1%, double double estimates, while core CPI jumped 1.8%, the fastest pace since March of 2019. On to corn, corn pulled back from its overnight highs, though the trend remains firmly bullish. May opened the week, supported by last week's base, with nearby support at 462 and 456. December tested$5 overnight, its strongest level since December of 2023, with initial support at 480. Energy markets continue to fuel momentum. Overnight oil gains lifted early corn positions before a modest retreat. Fund buying has been heavy, with open interest climbing nearly 40,000 contracts Friday and managed money net longs in May near 53,000 contracts midweek, likely higher after recent bullish action. Supply side factors also support the market. Fertilizer price increases, spring acreage competition, and slow South American harvest keeps attention on fundamentals. Argentina's corn harvest is just over 7% complete, while Brazil sees scattered showers with no major stress relief. May corn futures settled 6 and 3 and 6 and 3 quarter cents lower at 453 and 3 quarter. The high of the day was 476. December new crop futures closed at 481 and 34, down two and three quarter cents, with the high of the day coming in at 498.5. May soybeans open the week with a sharp gap reaching the highest levels since December of 2023 and clearing last week's breakout target at 1210. Energy markets and risk on buying fueled beans and bean oil higher. Chinese demand optimism adds further support with the U.S. export program expected to move an additional 8 million millimetric tons this season, tightening the domestic balance sheet. China headlines add a momentum. An early April trade meeting remains on. Beijing agreed to buy 500 bowling jets, and officials will meet in Paris next weekend ahead of the Trump Z meeting. 2026 could be a landmark year for US-China ties. Signaling trade remains a priority despite geopolitical tensions. Fund positioning supports the rally. Open interest jumped nearly 17,000 contracts Friday with managed money net longs just under 199,000. Soymeal and soy oil funds also increased position sharply. May soybean futures finished at 1196 and a quarter, down four and a half cents. The high of the May contract today was 1233 and three quarter. November futures closed one and a half cents higher at 1148.25, with the high of the day coming in at 11.72.5. Under the wheat, the wheat complex built a geopolitical premium overnight, spiking sharply alongside other greens, but much of that gain has been given back during the day session. May Chicago pulled back to support, suggesting the short-term spike may have run its course. Heavy fund buying Friday lifted prices to multi-month highs, though global fundamentals remain bearish. Conflict risk continues to influence wheat, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa, where import reliance amplifies geopolitical sensitivity. Domestically, southwestern plains missed most of last week's precipitation with limited rate expected, while eastern soft red wheat regions see better chances. Commitment of trader data showed managed money in Chicago increased net shorts to roughly$25,800 mid-last week, but the recent rally likely brought positions closer to neutral. Minneapolis May Resistance is seen at 637 to 640 with support at 626 to 617. Momentum remains positive, but RSI readings warn the market is approaching overbought. Strong energy prices remain the key driver near term. May Chicago futures lost 13.5 cents at 603 and a quarter. May Kansas City futures lost three and three quarter cents, finishing at 619 and three quarter. May Minneapolis settled at 646 of three cents. The high for Maine Minneapolis wheat for the day was 669 and a quarter. Onto the livestock, the cattle complex started the week under pressure after a sharply lower Friday close amid stock market weakness. The Dow was down again to start the week, but did come up for air, and the poor February jobs report didn't help sentiment either. Union workers at the Greeley, Colorado JBS plant rejected the company's offer, canceling the current contract extension on March 15th, making a strike increasingly likely. This labor risk could weigh on Fed cattle prices in the near term. Northern cash sales traded at 234 to 241. Southern trade was 238 to 241, and the five-day weighted average eased to 239.99. USDA slaughter estimates totaled 521,000 head last week, slightly above the previous week, but below a year ago. Average addressed weights came in at 895 pounds near last week, but above the five-year average. Fox beef cutouts rose to 387.22. Friday up 33 cents week over week. April live cattle are below the 10 and 50 day moving averages, signaling a short-term negative trend with support at 231.90 and 23010. Resistance lies near 237.25 and 240.82. Feeder contracts fell sharply as auctions showed steers and heifers$2 to$8 lower, calves$10 to$20 off. CME feeder index eased to$367.32. Technical signals remain negative with support at$344.12 and resistance near$356.21 to$362.47. Lean hog showed resilience as a CME lean hog index rose to$90.55, the highest since November. Technical momentum is positive, but entering overbought territory. June hogs may test early February highs near 112. If stock market weakness has shrugged off, support sits at 95 to 9480 and resistance is at 96.15 and 96.87. Fund positioning shows cattle managed money slightly reduced longs to 114,000 contracts, while hogs added 7,000 contracts to reach 124,000. The market balances technical selling pressure, cash adjustments, and underlying demand, with cattle uptrend showing fatigue and hogs maintaining a bullish edge. April live cattle was down 442.5 to finish at 230.15. April feeders came off limit down to close at$5.7.5 lower at$346.55. And April lean hogs closed 80 cents lower at 94.82 and a half. This concludes today's commentary. We hope everyone has a good evening and we will talk to you tomorrow.